Sustained Global Cement Demand Growth Expected

Byszheng

Updated Wed, 22 Jul 2015 11:14:39 GMT

Global cement consumption is expected to record sustained growth in 2015, with further gains forecast for 2016, according to analysis presented in the recently-released Global Cement Report Eleventh Edition.

Total world consumption rose by 2.6 per cent in 2014 to 4140Mt, compared to the 7.7 per cent growth achieved in 2013. Global demand growth has been driven by the phenomenon of China, which has increased its share of world consumption to reach 59 per cent in 2014.

Closer analysis shows that steady growth has prevailed in the emerging markets where in 2014 consumption (excluding China) increased by 2.7 per cent 1387Mt. In the mature markets of Europe and North America, overall demand growth returned to positive territory in 2014, rising by 2.8 per cent to reach 290.6Mt.

Leading markets

The top five consuming nations in 2014 were China, India, USA, Brazil and Russia. A total of 10 Asian countries are represented in the top 20, and while two east Asian nations - the Philippines and Malaysia - entered the top 20 for the first time, France and Italy fell out, reflecting the decline of western European consumption.  

Demand in China reached a record 2462Mt, translating into an annual increase of 2.6 per cent - the slowest growth rate in decades and well below the double-digit levels seen in recent years. These indicators suggest that the country is nearing peak demand for cement as the construction industry resets to a slower, more sustainable growth path.

In terms of regional performances, North America has been leading gains in the developed world where last year demand rose by a vigorous 8.2 per cent in 2014 versus 3.9 per cent a year earlier.

The best-performing regions across the world over the 2012-14 period have proved to be in the emerging markets of sub-Saharan Africa, led by central Africa with double-digit rate increases in each year.

Growth outlook

Looking ahead, general improvements in global growth trends are expected in 2015 and 2016, with forecasted increases of 3.3 and 4.6 per cent, respectively. North and central Asia are set to excel, as will much of Africa. Overall growth in Asia is forecast to be around 3-5 per cent, partly reflecting China's expected lower growth course. The Middle East and western Europe are expected to rebound, but obvious downside and political risks prevail.