[DBM Polysilicon Weekly Review]: Accelerating the Conversion to P-Type and Continuing to Fall Significantly (2023.12.19)

2023-12-19 10:47:42

Last week, the average transaction price of N-type silicon materials was 68,000 yuan/ton, down 0.15% on a month-on-month basis, maintaining a slight weakening trend, and the price was still not stable; the average transaction price of monocrystalline dense materials was 60,500 yuan/ton, down 1.63% on a month-on-month basis and 79% on a year-on-year basis.

The price performance

of N-type silicon materials is still relatively strong, as the inventory is also at a relatively low level, the price decline of N-type silicon materials is gradually narrowing.

I. Price Trend

of Silicon Materials Last week, the average transaction price of N-type silicon materials was RMB68,000/ton, down 0.15% on a month-on-month basis, maintaining a slightly weakening trend, and the price has not yet stabilized; the average transaction price of monocrystalline dense materials was RMB60,500/ton, down 1.63% on a month-on-month basis and 79% on a year-on-year basis. P-type silicon materials continued to fall more than N-type silicon materials, resulting in a widening of the N-P price gap.

Figure: Price Trend

of Monocrystalline Dense Material

Data source: Digital New Energy DataBM. Com


II. Demand

Last week, the overall order size was gradually reduced, N-type demand was still strong, the transaction continued to be better than P-type silicon materials, and the downstream booking cycle was extended. With the further expansion of TOPCon production capacity, N-type silicon materials are expected to maintain a tight balance, and prices may take the lead in stabilizing. Downstream silicon wafer prices have not yet stabilized, while the market share of P-type silicon wafers is declining rapidly, enterprises are accelerating the production of N-type silicon wafers, maintaining a high operating rate to continue to support the next stage of market demand.

3. Price outlook

At present, domestic polysilicon production enterprises maintain a high operating rate. By the end of December, some enterprises will have new production capacity, the overall supply will increase, and P-type silicon materials are expected to continue to decline.


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Correlation

Last week, the average transaction price of N-type silicon materials was 67,800 yuan/ton, down 0.29% on a month-on-month basis; the average transaction price of monocrystalline dense materials was 60,500 yuan/ton, flat on a month-on-month basis, down 75% on a year-on-year basis.

2023-12-25 14:01:48

Last week, the average transaction price of N-type silicon materials was 68,000 yuan/ton, down 0.15% on a month-on-month basis, maintaining a slight weakening trend, and the price was still not stable; the average transaction price of monocrystalline dense materials was 60,500 yuan/ton, down 1.63% on a month-on-month basis and 79% on a year-on-year basis.

2023-12-19 10:47:42

Prices in Ningxia are stable but export sales are low, Gansu is facing callback pressure after price increases, sales in Qinghai are not up to expectations after pushing up, Shaanxi has great resistance to price recovery, Xinjiang is stable due to engineering demand, and the overall market is mainly stable price wait-and-see in the short term.