Recently, the progress of perovskite technology has attracted more attention than other battery technologies, because the market is expected to achieve GW level production this year, that is, the market is concerned about the progress of perovskite pilot production line, but there is still a long way to go from pilot production line to commercial production, such as the stability of perovskite. Whether the core pain points such as life span are solved or not is the key factor restricting the future commercial mass production.
On the whole, Jianzhi Research affirms the progress of perovskite industry, and also looks forward to the improvement of photovoltaic efficiency brought by perovskite in laminated and multi-layer applications in the future. However, it is too early for perovskite to achieve large-scale production and application, even if a phased breakthrough has been achieved. What story is
perovskite telling?
Photovoltaic cell technology currently has many routes, TOPcon, HJT, XBC, perovskite and other technologies are flourishing, who will be the final mainstream route is unknown, because the industry is still in the trial and error stage. But today, I want to focus on perovskite.
Simply put, the perovskite battery is a "ABX3" compound similar to the crystal structure of perovskite (CaTiO3), but it has nothing to do with the literal meaning, not calcium, nor minerals. The main reason why perovskite is highly anticipated by the industry is that its efficiency and performance are very attractive compared with other technologies. Once large-scale production can be achieved, it will cause a huge shock in the photovoltaic industry.
First of all, what is the attraction of perovskite?
First, the efficiency is much higher than that of crystalline silicon cells. Perovskite battery materials have excellent performance, so they can be made not only into single junction, but also into stacked batteries (such as HJT stack), three-layer batteries and so on. The theoretical limit efficiency of crystalline silicon cells is 29.4%, while the single-junction perovskite can reach 33.7%. The theoretical conversion efficiency of perovskite in the stack mode can reach about 50%, while the current highest conversion efficiency of HJT is about 27%. It can be said that it is not an order of magnitude at all. Even from the current laboratory conversion efficiency, the perovskite-stack laboratory efficiency can reach 32.5%, which is still far beyond the crystalline silicon cell. Therefore, perovskite battery technology is very attractive because of its greater imagination of efficiency.
Second, the cost of production is very low. Because the production process of perovskite is very simple compared with crystalline silicon, the industrial chain is significantly shortened, and it only takes about 45 minutes from raw materials to components; for crystalline silicon batteries, silicon materials, silicon wafers, batteries and components need to be processed in different factories, and a set of processes takes about 3 days. In addition, the price of perovskite materials is lower than that of crystalline silicon, because perovskite basic materials are basic chemical elements, while crystalline silicon batteries need some rare metals. In terms of production process, perovskite is afraid of high temperature, while the front-end production process of crystalline silicon requires high temperature operation, so the energy consumption is lower than that of crystalline silicon batteries. In addition, the perovskite battery factory is the component factory of perovskite, and the cost of components is mainly composed of glass, packaging materials and electrode materials, so the production cost of single GW is half of that of crystalline silicon batteries.
So since there are so many advantages, high efficiency and low cost, why can't perovskite be mass-produced? Because the perovskite battery is an ionic crystal material, its stability is worse than that of crystalline silicon; and as the area of the perovskite battery becomes larger, the efficiency loss of the module will be more serious. Although a team led by Antonio Abate at the Helmholtz (HZB) Research Center in Germany recently said that "landmark progress" had been made in the stability of perovskite batteries. As well as the good news coming from the industry chain, such as the fiber alpha component has successfully passed the IEC61215 and IEC61730 stability system certification. These industrial developments show that perovskite has been making continuous progress in overcoming its shortcomings, although this does not mean that the stability of perovskite mass production, which is the most worrying problem in the industry, has been solved. How big is the gap between
ideal and reality?
Why has perovskite attracted much attention recently in many photovoltaic technology routes? The most important reason is that perovskite is expected to achieve a breakthrough of 0-1 this year, from MW to GW era, so the market rekindles hope for perovskite.
Many perovskite manufacturers are not listed, and the production capacity of basic perovskite enterprises is between 100-200 MW, such as Xiexin Photoelectric 100MW, Fiber Nano Photoelectric 100MW, Electrode Photoelectric 150MW and so on, with a production capacity of about 880 MW in 2022. It is expected to be 1.36 GW in 2023. However, due to the optimistic prospect of perovskite, the expansion plans of many leading enterprises are in full swing, and it is expected that the planned production capacity will reach about 40 GW by 2026. Of course, it is worth noting that planning is not equal to reality, nor is it equal to landing. As for the deviation from ideal to reality, it is unrealistic to talk about how much capacity there will be in the future.
And for the photovoltaic industry, it is just empty talk to talk about efficiency without talking about cost. After all, the reason why HJT has not been able to produce on a large scale is that the cost is higher than PERC. It can be seen that no matter how much the efficiency is said, the cost of mass production can not be reduced, and it is just a castle in the air. At present, the perovskite mineral energy of the leading companies such as Xiexin Optoelectronics and Fiber Nano Optoelectronics is still MW level, and there is no need to talk about cost reduction and economic benefits on the scale. Therefore, although we have achieved a breakthrough of 0-1, we should calm down and know that the distance from 1-10 is still far.
In addition, it is believed that even though perovskite has made some breakthroughs compared with last year, it is still a long-term problem for its large-scale production, just like the stability problem we mentioned above, short life can be said to be a fatal defect of perovskite compared with C rystalline silicon batteries, and the service life of general crystalline silicon batteries is 25 years. But at present, the longest service life of perovskite batteries is thousands of hours. If perovskite can solve these core problems in the future, it can be said to be a completely subversive photovoltaic revolution. However, although some progress has been made, it is too early to say subversion.
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