is thin and long and has exported more than 20 million tons of cement in 2018? The answer is Vietnam. Vietnam reported that it exported 20.1 million tons of cement in the short eight-month period from January to August 2018, which is equivalent to 106-112% of its annual "target" and roughly equivalent to its declared export volume for the whole of 2017. Vietnam's total cement production between January and August 2018 was 63.9 million tonnes, meaning that Vietnam exported 31.3% of the cement it produced in that time frame. Vietnam itself consumed only 43.8 million tons. The Vietnamese government's cement consumption target for 2018 is 65-66 million tons, which has been basically completed.
From the market point of view, this target seems to be quite large, especially the export target. In fact, this national goal is itself an alien concept. In most countries of the world, imports and exports are the result of trends in market supply and demand and are not driven by government regulation.
Therefore, the reasons behind Vietnam's willingness to export large quantities of cement may be best understood from within, and we will not speculate too much here. However, Vietnam is clearly determined to continue producing more cement than it can use. In other countries, will there be an important state-owned producer that can export more than 70% of cement? In the first half of 2018, Vicem did just that, exporting 11.7 million of the 14.2 million tons of cement it produced. Vietnam's export target for
2017 is 15 million tons. It ended up exporting 33% more than its target. At the current rate, this year may exceed expectations and reach 30 million tons of cement exports. That's more cement than a big European country like Germany can produce! Is this number too unusual?
Looking at the data from the WTEx website we dug into, it does seem to be a high number. According to WTEx, the world exported 167 million tons of cement in 2017. The biggest exporter is not Vietnam. Not even China, which was pushed from first place last year by Thailand (13.03 million tons) to second place (12.91 million tons). Turkey ranked third (12.79 million tons), Japan fourth (11.93 million tons) and Vietnam fifth (9.53 million tons).
With the exception of Turkey, all of these big cement exporters are in the Far East, which is awash with low-priced cement. The average export price of Chinese cement is $45 per tonne, compared with a global average of $55 per tonne, according to WTEx. Thailand is $42/ton, lower than China's $3/ton, which may explain why Thailand can replace China as the first exporter of cement. Turkey's average export price is also $42/t, although it is located in a region with many saturated markets and other areas that are growing rapidly, and its average export distance is second only to China. The average export price of Vietnam's cement is 51 US dollars/ton, higher than that of other countries. This has nothing to do with the apparent increase in exports so far in 2018, and Vietnam's cement export prices may have fallen. Surprisingly, among the top five exporters, Japan had the lowest export price in 2017, only $30 per ton.
Returning to the questions raised in the two paragraphs above, 30 million tons is indeed a very high figure. You will find a huge difference between WTEx's figure of 9.53 million tons in Vietnam and the official figure of 21 million tons in 2017 by the Vietnamese government. One wonders where the other 50% of Vietnam's reported exports actually go. Especially considering that WTEx reports a $1.5 billion difference in the value of imports and exports for the full year. Imports were $8.8 billion, but exports were $10.3 billion. The mysterious destination of
all this cement, real or imagined, could become a separate subject. The current situation seems to be that Vietnam's serious overcapacity of cement will continue. Because China is actively taking action to address the current situation of cement overcapacity, Japan, Turkey, Thailand and other countries may benefit in the short term. One day, however, he will end the process, but there is no sign of that yet.
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