Making predictions is laborious. Newspapers and magazines like to predict at this time of year, and Global Cement is no exception.
China: Cement companies will continue to expand
overseas Song Zhiping, former chairman of CNBM, said at the end of 2017 that the company plans to build 100 new factories in 50 countries by 2021. Many Chinese enterprises are working on projects in Central Asia and Africa, many of which are joint ventures. The question is, what happens if local investors default on their loans?
Vietnam: About 30 million tons
of cement exports in 2019 Vietnam Cement Association (VNCA) data show that Vietnam's cement exports in 2018 increased by 55% year-on-year to 31.7 million tons. Vietnam News estimated that producers generated about $1.2 billion from exports. Nguyen Quang Trong, chairman of the Vietnam Cement Association, attributed the rise in exports to a drop in Chinese production.
The Ministry of Construction attributed the export growth to the improved performance of the construction industry, with domestic cement consumption in Vietnam increasing by 9% to 65.1 million tons in 2018. It is estimated that the output will increase by 8% to about 99 million tons in 2019, of which 69 million tons will be consumed in the domestic market and 30 million tons will be exported. The main export markets in 2019 are expected to be the Philippines, Bangladesh, China, Taiwan and Peru.
India: Cement tax rate is expected to fall to 18%
Major cement producers see their business in India remaining stable in 2019. The Cement Manufacturers Association of India forecasts that India's cement industry will grow by 10% in fiscal year 2019 (April 2018 to March 2019). That would be the fastest growth in a fiscal year since the slowdown in 2011. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has pledged to boost the cement market by reducing the goods and services tax (GST) on cement from 28% to 18%.
Africa: Investment Risk Increases
From a demographic point of view, with the development of African countries, it should be a no-brainer for cement companies to invest in Africa. However, North Africa is rapidly turning into an export market as capacity growth outpaces local demand. Sub-Saharan Africa is clearly mixed, as coastal areas may be inundated with imported clinker from abroad, while investment in capacity in inland areas may be at risk. The current political instability in the Democratic Republic of the Congo is a case in point. Separately, the collapse of ARM Cement in Kenya in mid-2018 sent a warning signal to investors. Producers like Dangote Cement in Nigeria are snapping up bargains. More such projects are expected in 2019.
Brazil: Mergers
and acquisitions continue After years of poor performance, mergers and acquisitions in Brazil's cement industry finally began in 2018. A new "pro-business" president and a growing economy suggest that this trend will continue in 2019.
European cement producers will face more difficult choices
. The European Cement Association warned in 2018 that the local cement industry faced the problem of how to balance competitiveness with tightening climate legislation. In October 2018, three factories-two in Spain and one in Sweden-were designated for closure, proving that the associations were no joke. Cement companies in Europe may face more difficult choices in 2019.
浙公网安备33010802003254号