2025, the market price of each link in the silicon industry chain continued to be lower than production cost or even the cash cost, and the vast majority of production enterprises were in the predicament of loss-making operation. Among them, the average price of polysilicon dropped to 38000 yuan/ton in mid-May 2024, which is lower than average cost of the industry for more than 14 months; The average price of industrial silicon dropped to 9648 yuan/ton at the end of April 2025, which was lower than average cost of the industry for nearly three months ; The average price of 182-size silicon wafers began to drop to 0.95 yuan/piece in mid-May 2025, and the cost inversion time exceeded 2 months .
In order to improve the contradiction between supply and demand in the industrial chain, enterprises in various sectors have reduced their load, and the monthly operating rates of industrial silicon, polysilicon and silicon wafers have reached a record low of 41.9%, 38.6% and 44.3%, respectively . In the first half of 2025, the average monthly output of polysilicon in China was 100,000 tons , of which the monthly output in February was as low as 92,000 tons, a significant decrease of 47.4% compared with the same period last year. In the first half of the year , the overall start-up rate of the first five enterprises was 42.2% . In the first half of the year, the start-up load of a leading enterprise with the lowest start-up rate was only 24.1% . Through the reduction of production and load in the whole industry chain, polysilicon basically reached the state of production and marketing balance or even a small amount of storage in the first half of the year.
Figure 1 Operating rate of
polysilicon industry in the first half of 2025 The industry inventory was slightly reduced
. Before 2023, the domestic polysilicon inventory was basically maintained at the normal circulation state of about 2 weeks of production. However, since October 2023, new polysilicon production capacity in China has been released centrally, and the mismatch between supply and demand in upstream and downstream has led to a rapid oversupply in the market, and inventory has gradually accumulated. By the end of 2023, the domestic polysilicon inventory accumulated 63 thousand tons. During 2024, 335000 tons of new inventory were added, reaching a historical high of 398000 tons by the end of the year. In the first half of
2025, the domestic polysilicon output was approximately 597,000 tons , representing a year-on-year decrease of 44.0% . During the same period, the output of silicon wafers was approximately 313.8 GW , representing a year-on-year decrease of 23.8% , and the corresponding demand for polysilicon was 628,000 tons . In the first half of 2025, the supply of polysilicon was slightly less than demand, and the inventory was about 31,000 tons (supply and demand including import and export). By the end of June, the domestic polysilicon inventory had dropped slightly to 367,000 tons.
Figure 2 Inventory of
polysilicon industry in the first half of 2025 The price of silicon materials first stabilized and then fell
. In the first half of 2025, the price of polysilicon showed a trend of "first stabilized and then fell". From the beginning of January to the middle of April, the market price was relatively stable. Polysilicon re-feeding rose slightly from 40,600 yuan/ton at the beginning of January to 41,700 yuan/ton in the middle of January, with an increase of 2.7%. After that, the price was stable for three months to the middle of April. Since late April, the price has fallen all the way to 34 thousand and 400 yuan/ton at the end of June, a decline of 17.5% . In the first half of 2025, the average price of polysilicon was 36800 yuan/ton, down 28.8% from the same period last year. The "stable stage" from
January to April: affected by the "430" and "531" policies, the terminal rush to install stimulated the downstream demand, and the price rise was transmitted upward to the silicon wafer sector, but the polysilicon was subject to excessive inventory pressure and failed to continue the rise.
From April to June, the "downward stage": the equipment goods were basically near the end, the downstream production schedule was gradually reduced, and the output of polysilicon fluctuated slightly in the same period. Although the state of destocking was still maintained, the amount of destocking was reduced. In addition, the large industry inventory base was not significantly shaken, which led to the price of polysilicon entering the downward trend again.
Figure 3 From January 2024 to June 2025, the
supply and demand trend of polysilicon market will be adjusted
dynamically. In 2025, the global photovoltaic installed capacity is expected to be about 580 GW. The global demand for polysilicon in the whole year is about 1.4 million tons (excluding the inventory of each link), and the domestic demand is about 1.3 million tons . In the first half of the year, the domestic output of polysilicon was about 597,000 tons , and in the second half of the year, considering the resumption of production of individual bases of three leading domestic enterprises and the release of some new production capacity, the output in the second half of the year is expected to be about 750,000 tons . The annual domestic polysilicon output is expected to be around 1.35 million tons. According to the current production schedule, with the basic balance of supply and demand in the silicon wafer sector and the destocking of batteries and components, the silicon material sector will enter a small accumulation state again in the second half of the year, with a total annual inventory increment of about 30 thousand tons.
At present, the polysilicon industry is at a critical stage of profound adjustment and structural remodeling. National ministries and associations are actively intervening in multiple dimensions through "anti-involution" actions, capacity mergers and acquisitions, performance standards and other measures. In the future, joint efforts are still needed to break the situation, but at least it is on the right track. As far as the latest "price is not lower than cost" norm is concerned, if the enterprise has a long-term inventory backlog and lacks cash flow support, it will face the risk of shutdown, and to a certain extent, it will screen advanced production capacity through comprehensive cost advantages. Capacity M & a is to fundamentally eliminate the vicious circle of backward production capacity resuming production after the price of polysilicon returns to a rational range. Performance standards are mandatory norms for industries in terms of product quality and energy consumption indicators, so as to avoid enterprises blindly pursuing low costs and falling into "involution" competition again.
The above ways to break the situation are to take multiple measures simultaneously, and none of them is indispensable. After the gradual implementation of various measures, the market supply and demand and price trends will also be adjusted dynamically.
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