On July 25, the "Seminar on Review of the Development of Photovoltaic Industry in the First Half of 2025 and Prospect of the Situation in the Second Half of 2025" sponsored by China Photovoltaic Industry Association was held in Datong City, Shanxi Province. Wang Bohua, Honorary Chairman of China Photovoltaic Industry Association, made a keynote report on the Development of China's Photovoltaic Industry -Review of the First Half of 2025 and Prospects for the Second Half of 2025.
Wang Bohua said in his speech that the situation of China's photovoltaic industry in the first half of the year was difficult. Despite the milestone growth in new photovoltaic installations, the output, price, export and start-up rate of major sectors of the photovoltaic industry have reached a new low in terms of revenue and profits. Among them, the output of polysilicon and silicon wafers has shown negative growth for the first time in history, and a number of delisting, bankruptcy, and even merger and reorganization enterprises have emerged in the industry.
In the second half of the year, although the trend of continuous growth of installed capacity in the global market has not changed, there is still great potential for improvement: the forecast data of new installed capacity of global PV increased from 531-583 GW at the beginning of the year to 570-630 GW; The new PV installed capacity in China was increased from 215 GW to 255 GW at the beginning of the year to 270-300 GW.
However, with the acceleration of the trend of localization in major overseas markets and the rapid speed of localization, as well as the fact that the active localization areas basically cover the major overseas markets of China's exports, Chinese photovoltaic enterprises are facing the situation of accelerated deterioration of overseas competition pattern . Wang Bohua said that although the growth of overseas markets does not mean growth of China's exports of photovoltaic products, localized competition has intensified, and we may not be able to get this market, which needs to be highly valued .
In the domestic market, the China Photovoltaic Industry Association also raised the annual new installed capacity data, from 215 GW to 255 GW to 270-300 GW. Wang Bohua believes that after five months in the first half of the year, the installed capacity of 17 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions has reached GW level, and more than half of the regions are relatively stable in comprehensively promoting the He said that over the past six months, policies have been launched intensively, and in the second half of the year, efforts will be focused on stabilizing expectations and expanding scenarios to support the development of the photovoltaic industry. In addition, Wang Bohua said that in recent years, the top level has been making intensive voices and paying more attention to it, and the specific direction of "governing low-price and disorderly competition, improving product quality, and promoting the withdrawal of backward production capacity" has been clear. In the second half of the year, "anti-involution" is the "most important and important" work in the photovoltaic industry, and these work has been greatly promoted. He said that through joint efforts, we hope to see the effect of governance as soon as possible, so that the photovoltaic industry can return to the normal and healthy development track as soon as possible. The following is the full text of the speech. manufacturing side in the first half of the year is decline . Exports have also declined. On the one hand, the export volume of photovoltaic products has declined for two consecutive years, with the export volume falling by 26% from January to June this year compared with the same period last year. On the other hand, the export volume, especially the export volume of components, also declined. Under such circumstances, it is very difficult for enterprises to operate. According to the statistics of 31 listed companies in the main industry chain, the net loss in the first quarter was 12.58 billion yuan, an increase of 274% over the same period last year. But we also have bright spots in these aspects, and the brightness is very high, that is, the application side. In the first half of the year, we increased the installed capacity of PV by 212. . On the manufacturing side, we are concerned about two situations: the output growth rate of the four main industrial chains has all declined significantly, of which the smallest is the cell, which has declined by 7. The output of polysilicon and silicon wafers has experienced negative growth for the first time. The polysilicon sector fell by more than 100% year-on-year, showing the first negative growth since 2013. The drop of silicon wafers is more than 80%, showing the first negative growth since 2007. The industry operating rate data is also very low. Cells and components are about 50%, silicon wafers are less than 50%, and polysilicon is even less than 40%. cumulative installation. By the end of May, the cumulative installed capacity had exceeded 1000 GW , less than two and a half years after the global breakthrough of 1000 GW into the terawatt era. 1000 GW is a terawatt, which is equivalent to the total installed capacity of 48 Three Gorges hydropower stations, which is very considerable. At the same time, in terms of the proportion of installed capacity, the proportion of photovoltaic power generation in the total installed capacity of the country has increased to 30% , and it has been achieved at a very fast speed. We will only account for 10% in 2020 and 20% in three years after 2023. Less than a year and a half later, it rose to 30% , and the development speed was amazing. export volume, silicon wafers continued the downward trend of export volume in the second half of last year, which was still affected by the closure or shutdown of production lines in Southeast Asia by the United States. The increase in cells was mainly affected by the rapid growth of module production capacity in India and Indonesia. For the first time in history, the export of large components declined year-on-year. 2. Compared with the trend of "volume increase and price decrease" last year and the previous year, this year is "volume and price fall" , with a decline of more than 23% year-on-year, reflecting that overseas market demand is slowing down. Next, we look forward to the second half of the year and the follow-up situation. It can be seen that the trend of the global electricity market to continue to develop and expand has not changed, and the market cake is still expanding. The cake is bigger, how much can we cut? In 2024, the global average penetration rate of photovoltaic power generation reached 6. China has increased more than 20 times in the past 10 years, and 0 in 2014. Despite the rapid development, there is still great potential for improvement. The penetration rate of developed countries, including many European countries, is more than 10%. The Netherlands has exceeded 21% as soon as possible, and we are now around 9%. In other words, we still have a lot of room for improvement. According to the forecast of the size of the global photovoltaic market, the global photovoltaic market is still at a high level of development this year. Therefore, our global PV new installed capacity forecast is raised based on the forecast data at the beginning of the year, from 531-583 GW installed capacity at the beginning of the year to 570-630 GW. Mainly based on the following considerations: China's market has laid a foundation for high installed capacity in the first half of the year; although some overseas markets have shrunk, emerging markets are accelerating their development. According to statistics, there may be more than 40 markets exceeding GW level this year, and the volume is expanding. But the growth rate is not so optimistic. It is expected that the global market growth rate will barely enter double-digit growth in the optimistic case and hit single-digit growth in the conservative case. Last year, the growth rate was about 36%, so it dropped sharply. Second, the active localization areas basically cover the main overseas markets of China's exports, and the overseas competition pattern is deteriorating at an accelerated pace. In other words, although the growth of overseas markets does not mean growth of China's exports of photovoltaic products, localized competition intensifies, we may not be able to get this market, we need to attach great importance to it. The annual installed capacity forecast of the domestic market in 2025 is raised from 215 GW to 255 GW to 270-300GW. It is mainly based on the consideration of new installed capacity in the first half of the year, and the domestic market, like foreign countries, is basically in the situation of all-round development in all regions. Five months after the first half of the year, the installed capacity of 17 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions has entered the GW level, and more than half of the regions have comprehensively promoted photovoltaic installation. Many projects have a solid foundation for grid connection, and the certainty of installed capacity growth is relatively strong. The project of Fengguang Base is relatively stable, and the market in mature areas of market-oriented transactions is guaranteed. The domestic market can play a considerable role in underpinning the future development demand of photovoltaic products. In terms of future market development, policies have been launched intensively for more than half a year, mainly focusing on stabilizing expectations and expanding scenarios, and focusing on these two aspects in the future. In terms of stabilizing expectations, the distributed management measures were introduced to clarify the strategic positioning of distributed photovoltaic and provide clear guidance for investment decisions of distributed photovoltaic, which reduced the risk of policy uncertainty to a certain extent, enabling enterprises to rationally plan long-term development strategies in the future and stabilize investment expectations. On the other hand, each region has launched the official draft of the implementation rules or the draft for comments, combined with its own resource endowment, including power structure, absorptive capacity, industrial layout, etc., with the characteristics of adapting measures to local conditions and differentiation, to improve the adaptability and feasibility of photovoltaic projects in various regions, to ensure the steady progress of projects and to stabilize expectations. It is worth noting that with the rapid development of industrial and commercial economy in economically developed provinces, there is no demand for self-use proportion of general industrial and commercial projects, which better reflects the expected role of stability. In terms of No.136 civilization, it is indeed required that all localities introduce specific plans and implement them before the end of the year, so as to give you time expectations for progress. In addition, the overall purpose of smooth transition is implemented in the plans issued by various regions, the original policy is used for the convergence of stock projects, and the expected rate of return of incremental projects is guaranteed by setting the scale, upper and lower limits of mechanism electricity, which is expected to promote the smooth convergence and release of installed demand. In terms of the weight of responsibility for consumption, the Notice on the Weight of Responsibility for Consumption of Renewable Energy Power in 2025 and Related Matters shows that the actual value of the weight of responsibility for consumption of non-water renewable energy in 2025 is higher than expected value put forward last year in most areas, which improves the demand expectation to a certain extent. In addition, there is an expected target for 2026, which is higher than actual value in 2025, so as to guide all localities to find reserve projects and carry out the work of improving the absorptive capacity in advance. The document also specifies the proportion of green electricity consumption in five key industries, among which electrolytic aluminium is included in the assessment, which is good for the release of green certificate purchasing demand in the electrolytic aluminium industry, and the other four industries may be included in the assessment in the future, which is expected. Scenario expansion: The "Notice on Matters Relating to Orderly Promotion of the Development of Green Power Direct Connection", a green power direct connection policy, plays an important role in the continuous improvement of the penetration rate of new energy power generation and the construction of new power systems, and is conducive to the expansion of photovoltaic application scenarios. Through the direct connection of green power, we can tap the potential of local consumption and expand more application scenarios. For example, for high energy-consuming industries and green data centers, we can promote the direct supply of green power such as photovoltaic power and expand new scenarios such as industrial production or digital infrastructure by allocating new energy projects or replacing existing self-owned power plants. Photovoltaic sand control, as an innovative combination of photovoltaic project development and ecological management, has entered the stage of national action from the past local exploration, which is of great significance. Compared with the large base project in 2020, there are several differences: the large base project in 2020 includes scenarios such as photovoltaic sand control, abandoned mine control and efficient utilization of water resources, and this document specifically focuses on photovoltaic sand control; the large base project aims at wind power and photovoltaic, and 253GW mainly focuses on photovoltaic; The planning project document is led by the State Forestry and Grass Administration, which is conducive to operation. Another extension scenario is multi-integration and coordinated development with other industries, which is an important aspect of expanding photovoltaic absorption capacity and expanding application scenarios. Relevant government documents put forward many measures, which are very good for the photovoltaic industry. For example, the promotion of energy storage status is conducive to alleviating the pressure of large-scale photovoltaic access on the grid and expanding the capacity of photovoltaic access. Photovoltaic hydrogen production and derivatives of hydrogen production, the low-carbon transformation scheme of coal-fired power proposed that the transformed coal-fired power units should have the ability to burn more than 10% green ammonia, which is a considerable photovoltaic market. In terms of data centers, the electricity consumption of all data centers in the world exceeded 400 billion degrees last year, equivalent to the annual electricity consumption of the United Kingdom, and will reach 950 billion degrees by 2030, equivalent to the current annual electricity consumption of Japan, of which 25% is in China. In addition, the charging capacity of new energy vehicles is ten times the growth rate of electricity consumption in the whole society, and the growth rate is fast. Finally, share the situation of the manufacturing side. Judging from the situation at all levels of the central government and all aspects of the industry, anti-involution or governance involution in the second half of this year is definitely the most important work at the manufacturing end. We are concerned about several situations: high-level intensive voice, the level to the top, the Political Bureau of the Central Committee, the Central Economic Work Conference, the Central Financial and Economic Conference, the Report on the Work of the Government and even the central media, the frequency of publication is intensive, which shows that the higher authorities pay high attention to this aspect. Some articles even said that "anti-involution has become a national action". The second is to upgrade the degree of attention. On July 30, 2024, the Politburo document was to prevent internal volume, and six months later, it was proposed to rectify internal volume. The two words are very different. Compared with the initial documents, the recent objectionable documents have higher standing, wider coverage and stronger synergy. Third, the specific direction of work has been clarified through the document: to control low-price and disorderly competition, improve product quality, and promote the withdrawal of backward production capacity. The direction of work is clear. Recently, the government has made a lot of achievements: in terms of unfair competition control, the government began to conduct spot checks on bidding projects last year and continued this year; the General Administration of Market Supervision has introduced ten measures to promote anti-involution; The State Development and Reform Commission and the General Administration of Market Supervision have launched the Draft Amendment to the Price Law to clarify the criteria for identifying unfair price behavior. At the association level, we should study and formulate benchmarking cost prices for enterprises and industries for reference, promote industry self-discipline, pay close attention to and supervise the bidding behavior of low-price bidding, communicate with enterprises at any time and report to the competent authorities. In terms of improving product quality, at the government level, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the General Administration of Market Supervision began to conduct spot checks on product quality. In June, the General Administration of Market Supervision launched the announcement of spot checks on product quality supervision in 2025, which included In a word, "anti-involution" in the second half of the year is the most important and important work , and these work has been greatly promoted, hoping to see the effect of governance as soon as possible, so that the photovoltaic industry can return to the normal and healthy development track as soon as possible.
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