"The whole development of our photovoltaic manufacturing sector has been advancing all the way from the past, and is changing to a comprehensive adjustment and a deep and comprehensive adjustment."
On November 18, the "2025 Eighth China International Photovoltaic and 
As we all know, the progress of China's photovoltaic industry over the past decade, especially the output of the manufacturing side, has been growing at a rate higher than double digits. Even last year (2024), it was still double-digit growth. The year before last, the growth of our four industrial chains was more than 60% year-on-year, very high-speed growth, but now the growth rate has slowed down. This shows that the whole development of our photovoltaic manufacturing sector has been advancing all the way from the past, and is changing to a comprehensive adjustment and a deep and comprehensive adjustment. Wang Bohua believes that this is a positive signal for the current situation of overcapacity in the photovoltaic industry.
On the application side, the newly installed PV capacity in China reached 240.27 GW in the first nine months , an increase of 49% over the same period last year. This is already the second highest year in the history of installed capacity in China (Note: in 2023, the newly installed PV capacity in China was 216.3GW. In 2024, it is 277.
It is worth noting that the application side shows the characteristics of high before and low after . From January to May, the year-on-year growth was 118. However, from June, there was a sharp decline from June to October. In June, the lowest decline was close to 40%, and after entering the third quarter, the basic decline was more than 50%. This shows that the development of application side is also slowing down . In terms of
import and export, although the export volume of photovoltaic products in China is still declining in the first three quarters of this year, it is gratifying that in the two consecutive years of decline, this year's decline has narrowed by 20 percentage points compared with the same period last year. In the same period last year, the export volume dropped by 35.1%, and this year it dropped by 14.
Wang Bohua believes that this is the effect of self-discipline in China's photovoltaic industry, and the trend of involution and externalization has been curbed. So for the whole year, the whole price is in a state of stopping falling , and it is basically stable. In this case, the prices of silicon wafers and cells have risen, and the components (prices) are flat. In terms of
supply chain price, the fluctuation in the first three quarters of this year is relatively large, which is obviously affected by the policy . Therefore, under the impact of the time node, the first nine months of this year were all in a state of fluctuation.
As of September, the average price of polysilicon, silicon wafers, cells and modules increased by 31.6%, 6.8% and 6.8% compared with the beginning of the year.
The details are as follows:
First, the output of polysilicon from January to September this year was 974,000 tons. (Polysilicon) also grew by more than 40% in the same period last year, and this year it fell by more than 30% year-on-year. Overall, the growth rate of polysilicon dropped by 75 percentage points.
From the quarterly performance, the decline of polysilicon is mainly reflected in the first and second quarters. The main reasons are: on the one hand, the price is relatively low, which is lower than cash cost, so some enterprises have reduced the operating rate; on the other hand, during this period, especially in the southwest region, the production cost is relatively high, so enterprises are also taking the initiative to shut down production capacity; On the other hand, last year's base was relatively high, with 1.06 million tons of polysilicon produced in the first half of last year, nearly 10% more than in the first three quarters of this year. Although the output of polysilicon
in the third quarter decreased on a year-on-year basis, it showed an increase on a month-on-month basis, mainly due to the impact of policy expectations in the second half of the year, especially the requirement of the Anti-Unfair Competition Law that sales should not be lower than cost price. At the same time, the southwest region has entered a wet season. The output of
silicon wafers was 490GW, with a year-on-year decline of 12.5%, and the growth rate declined in the second place, with a total decline of 46.
From the perspective of each quarter, the first quarter showed a year-on-year and month-on-month decline, which Wang Bohua believed was directly related to the decline in demand; In the second quarter, there was a considerable increase on a year-on-year basis and a month-on-month basis, especially on a month-on-month basis, which was mainly affected by the rush to install, and the two rush to install nodes occurred in the second quarter; in the third quarter, there was a year-on-year increase on a year-on-year basis and a month-on-month basis, which was mainly due to the substantial increase in the export of solar cells and the slight increase in the export of silicon wafers, while in the second quarter, affected by the "rush to install", some overseas deliveries were delayed to the third quarter. Some of them are expected to be affected by the cancellation of export tax rebates.
Battery production in the first three quarters was 495 GW, with a year-on-year growth of 8.
On a quarterly basis, the output in the first quarter declined both year-on-year and month-on-month, because the first quarter was our traditional off-season for battery components, coupled with some impetus from industry self-discipline; As the two rush installation nodes occurred in the second quarter, the growth rate of photovoltaic installation in China reached 168% year-on-year, 155% year-on-year, showing explosive growth, coupled with the characteristics of battery production based on sales, so the impact is more significant; The domestic market declined sharply in the third quarter, so the battery ring ratio showed a double-digit decline, but increased year-on-year, which is closely related to the growth of demand in the export market of batteries in the third quarter. In terms of
components, the output in the first three quarters of this year was 443 GW, representing a year-on-year increase of 12. This sector is highly similar to the battery sector, and the quarterly performance characteristics are consistent. On the
application side, the newly installed photovoltaic capacity from January to September this year is very considerable- more than 240 GW , an increase of nearly 50% over the same period last year. And the second quarter also gave birth to a historical record-the monthly installed capacity in May reached 92.
 installed capacity of the https://img7.ccement.com/news/2511/richtext/img/euiw5niawyj1763465165749. is high at the beginning and low at the end, and it is somewhat in the state of pulse development.)
each quarter are different. For example, I call it gradual growth in the first quarter. Because from January to February, there was still a small increase, but in March, due to the relationship between No.136, it began to grow explosively. So overall, it grew by 30% year-on-year in the first quarter.
In the second quarter, I call it explosive growth. In the second quarter (new installed capacity), the year-on-year growth is close to 170%, and the installed capacity is equivalent to that of the second quarter of last year.
The third quarter is characterized by a cliff-like decline. The reasons are as follows: From the perspective of time nodes, the two rush installation nodes have just ended. The node of centralized grid connection has not yet arrived; from the perspective of policy, although the state and local governments have issued many policies, the specific policies of the application side have not yet been implemented, and (the industry) is in an awkward period; from the perspective of price, the price has begun to rise. The combination of the above reasons led to a cliff-like decline in the third quarter, especially in July, August and September, when the average monthly installed capacity was about 10GW.
From another point of view, the sudden decline in installed capacity in the third quarter has been achieved under the full release of market pessimism. In other words, to some extent, it represents a lower limit for our monthly installed capacity in the next few years.Even at such a lower limit, we should have a total installed capacity of 100GW for the whole year, which is also relatively good. Because in addition to 2023 and 2024, the highest level of new installed capacity in China is 87 GW . In
the overseas market, the export volume of silicon wafers and components in the first half of this year was negative growth, and after the third quarter, from negative to positive , both links showed growth. Among them, the growth rate of battery sector has increased from 74% in the first half of the year to 90% , and the export volume is growing rapidly. In terms of
export structure, with the expansion of overseas production capacity, our export structure (photovoltaic industry) has changed significantly. In the past, components (export volume) accounted for the vast majority, but now batteries (export volume) have come up . Last year, the export volume of batteries accounted for 7% of the total export volume, and in the first nine months of this year, it has reached 13.
The distribution of the export market of components has two characteristics:
First, the trend of diversified markets continues to strengthen . From January to September, China's exports (components) to more than 110 countries and regions showed year-on-year growth, of which 50 countries grew by more than 100%, and 33 countries grew by more than 100% by the end of 2024. Another point is that the market share of the top 10 component exports was less than 60% from January to September this year, reaching 52. This also shows that the concentration of overseas markets is declining and the trend of diversification is strengthening. In
addition, in terms of regional distribution, traditional markets such as European and South American markets (export volume) are slowing down , but in turn, the export volume of Africa, Oceania, Asia and North America has increased significantly. Among them , Africa is the most obvious , with an increase of 58. Of the 57 countries in Africa, 44 countries have increased, with the largest increase coming from Algeria, Egypt, Nigeria and so on. In the first nine months of this year
, a large number of small-scale markets broke out at the same time. Emerging markets have gradually become the industry chain. The prominent feature of the price is that it fluctuates greatly throughout the year, and this fluctuation is greatly affected by the policy nodes. Generally speaking, the silicon wafer sector of battery components was affected by the distributed policy No.136, and the price began to fluctuate in the first half of the year-reaching a high point in March, entering a downward channel in April, and entering a low point in June. third quarter, affected by the demand side, component prices have not been effectively rebounded, and are still under pressure . Wang Bohua said that this is closely related to the acceptance of the price on the application side. From the perspective of operation, the overall loss is narrowing and the overall situation is improving. Although business income is still in a state of decline, the rate of decline is slowing down quarter by quarter. In terms of economic benefits, for example, the net profit of enterprises is still a loss as a whole, but the loss margin is declining sharply. Especially in the third quarter, it dropped by about 47 percentage points compared with the second quarter, and the decline was very large. From the perspective of gross profit margin, after reaching the lowest point in the first quarter, it has risen to 5 in the third quarter. Therefore, gross profit has risen instead of falling, which also reflects the improvement of the profit quality of our corporate orders from one side. It also reflects the commitment of enterprises to actively respond to industry self-discipline and the requirement of selling at no less than cost price. In terms of construction under construction, it is in a low state in 2025, which has dropped by 47 percentage points by the third quarter of this year compared with the highest point in 2024. This also shows that our projects under construction have been effectively controlled. Finally, Wang Bohua briefly looks forward to the future development of the photovoltaic industry from three perspectives. First of all, from the macro development environment, the country's firm determination to vigorously develop new energy remains unchanged, and even has been strengthened . Wang Bohua believes that this is the greatest strength to continue to vigorously develop the photovoltaic industry. From the top-level point of view, there have been many good news recently, which is conducive to the development of the photovoltaic industry. Wang Bohua mentioned that at the United Nations Climate Conference held on September 24, China proposed that " by 2035, China's non-fossil energy consumption will account for more than 30% of its total energy consumption." The total installed capacity of wind power and solar power will reach more than six times that of 2020 and strive to reach 3.6 billion kilowatts , Wang Bohua said, which means that the new installed capacity of photovoltaic wind power in China will not be less than 200 GW per year. Second, the policy brings short-term pain and long-term benefits, and the industry still needs to learn to adapt to the process. From the perspective of policy environment, the density of recent photovoltaic and other new energy-related policies is very high. In October , the state and local governments issued 64 policies related to the photovoltaic industry, including some important policies that have great influence and guiding significance on the development of the industry. However, Wang Bohua also reminded that although the policy is constantly improving, the introduction of new policies will inevitably bring some changes to the status quo of the industry, and may even bring some short-term shocks . For example, the bidding work of new energy mechanism price will lead to relatively low price of wind and solar power generation , which will affect the investment enthusiasm of some regions , but in the long run, the bidding is a market-oriented way to reflect the supply and demand of new energy power in various regions. Use price signals to plan and guide investment more intuitively. At the same time, if the bidding work can be combined with the "anti-involution" work, we can keep the reasonable technical cost and reduce the unreasonable non-technical cost space through price pressure, which will be conducive to the long-term development of enterprises and industries. But he also admitted that the industry still needs a process of adaptation, the market's understanding of the bidding mechanism is not enough, the reaction speed and decision-making process is still slow, and the trading strategy needs to be optimized, but this is the process of learning, adapting and even shuffling that the industry must go through. Third, the growth of the global photovoltaic market is expected to slow down, but the basic demand remains stable. According to the World Energy Outlook 2025 report issued by the International Energy Agency (IEA), from 2025 to 2030, there will be no less than 550 GW of new photovoltaic installed capacity in the world every year, and in addition to the unconventional high-speed growth in the past and the phased adjustment of some major markets in 2026, there will be more photovoltaic installed capacity in the world. Therefore, it is judged that there may be a decline in the growth rate in 2026. Global In addition, electricity demand in emerging markets is rising rapidly. India, Southeast Asia, the Middle East and other emerging developing countries have developed industries to form stable and low-cost power demand, and small optical storage systems have helped Africa and other vast areas without electricity to access power at low cost. Wang Bohua finally concluded that, in short, whether from the favorable macro-environment for the development of the photovoltaic industry, the improvement of the policy environment, or the optimism of the global demand market, the photovoltaic industry should have full confidence, play its unique resilience, get out of the predicament as soon as possible, and enter a new stage of healthy development.
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