On December 11, the European Solar Energy Association released the European Union Solar Energy Market Outlook for 2025-2030.
The latest report shows that the EU's new solar photovoltaic installed capacity in 2025 is 65.1GW , a slight decrease of 0.7% from 65.6GW in 2024. This is the first year-on-year decline since 2016.
In addition, the European Solar Energy Association predicts that the new installed capacity of solar photovoltaic in the EU will continue to decline in the next two years and will not return to the 2025 level until the end of this decade.
Despite the decline in PV installed capacity in 2025 , the European Solar Energy Association said that the EU has achieved its target of 400GW solar installed capacity in 2025. The total installed capacity reaches 406 GW .
But the European Solar Association says the slowdown is expected to continue until 2026-2027 before growth resumes in 2028-2029; by 2030, about 67 GW of new solar capacity will be installed in the EU each year.
This means that the EU will not be able to meet its target of 750 GW of solar installed capacity by 2030. In the most likely scenario, the EU will end up with just 718 GW of solar capacity in 2030, according to SolarPower Europe.
In response, the European Solar Energy Association said the slowdown was partly due to the weak residential solar market, which accounted for 28% of new installed capacity in the EU in 2023, but only 14% in 2025.
In order to achieve the EU's target of 750GW solar installed capacity by 2030, the European Solar Energy Association recommends that "policymakers should redefine energy security around the electrification of renewable energy, develop a comprehensive energy system flexibility strategy, implement licensing procedures, and promote the development of rooftop solar market".
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