Since last year, domestic cement clinker production lines have started to supplement production capacity. According to the latest statistics of
China Cement Network, as of December 16, more than 240 clinker lines have completed capacity replenishment, totaling 134 million tons of withdrawal capacity and 87.2 million tons of supplementary capacity. From the perspective of regional distribution, Anhui has the largest production capacity from outside the province, reaching 8.913 million tons, followed by Guangdong, with a scale of 6.355 million tons.
According to the book data, 134 million tons of withdrawal capacity replaced 87.2 million tons of supplementary capacity, theoretically reducing 46.8 million tons of clinker production capacity, which should have alleviated the industry's overcapacity dilemma. However, the actual situation is that this capacity supplement has not solved the core problem, but may aggravate the situation of overcapacity and further magnify the risk of turbulence in the cement market next year.
1. The "magic spell" of production capacity releases the unbridled
release of production capacity. If we make a metaphor for the overproduction behavior before the replenishment of production capacity, I would like to call it "dancing with the magic spell". Before
this capacity replenishment, although the phenomenon of overproduction in the industry has existed for a long time, it is restricted by relevant laws and regulations (overproduction of more than 10% is illegal), enterprises still have some scruples about production, and production capacity is restrained. After the completion of capacity replenishment, the original shackles of capacity constraints were completely released, and overproduction was no longer the industry's "tacit" recessive behavior. Cement enterprises were able to produce at full capacity unscrupulously, and the actual capacity scale increased substantially, which directly aggravated the real pressure of overcapacity.
2. Cross-regional transfer of production capacity intensifies the transfer of excess
capacity to some enterprises, which regard this capacity replenishment as an opportunity for regional capacity adjustment, and transfer the production capacity in areas with extremely excess capacity and dim market prospects to areas with relatively light excess capacity or better market conditions. This transfer further aggravates the pressure of overcapacity in the transfer areas, among which the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta are the main transfer areas. As mentioned above, Anhui has the largest production capacity from outside the province, reaching 8.913 million tons, followed by Guangdong, with a scale of 6.355 million tons.
Taking Anhui as an example, most of the transfer areas are Guizhou and other regions with extremely serious overcapacity. After filling up the production capacity, the paper production capacity of Anhui clinker increased by nearly 9 million tons directly, but the local area obviously could not digest such a large-scale increment, which will inevitably impact the cement market along the Yangtze River and coastal areas in the future, and increase the problem of overcapacity of cement along the Yangtze River and coastal areas. The transfer area represented by Guizhou, even if it does not implement capacity replacement, because the overcapacity is too serious, it can not basically play its capacity. The demand for cement in economically developed regions such as
the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta is relatively good, and now the placement of external production capacity may lead these markets into the quagmire of low-price competition.
3. Lack of capacity accounting standards and persistent
hidden dangers of overproduction In the process of capacity replenishment in this round, there is a lack of uniform standards for capacity accounting, resulting in chaos. For the same kiln with a diameter of 4.8 meters, the supplementary capacity of different production lines varies greatly, with a supplementary scale of 500t/d and a case of 2500t/d, with a difference as high as 2000t/d; there are also unconventional supplementary specifications such as 666t/d, 1066t/d and 333t/d.
This phenomenon marks the formal end of the era of taking kiln diameter as the basis of capacity accounting, but the new accounting standard has not yet been established, resulting in the actual capacity scale of clinker production line becoming a "vague zone". So how much is the production capacity of a cement clinker production line, it will become a "metaphysical" problem. So, is it true that the production capacity of the production line with a kiln diameter of 4.8 meters is supplemented to 5500t/d, 6000t/d or even 6500t/d? How to judge the capacity scale of a cement kiln? I'm afraid no one can say. As for the overproduction problem, it may still exist.
Of course, in addition to the above situation, "zombie capacity" is used to supplement capacity and the actual capacity is less than record capacity but replaced by the record capacity .
Generally speaking, filling up the production capacity only makes the cement production capacity "change a living method", and the problem of overcapacity in the cement industry has not been effectively solved.
More vigilance is that capacity replenishment is essentially a reinvestment behavior, for cement enterprises, as soon as possible to recover investment costs is the core demand, which means that the probability of enterprises will significantly increase capacity utilization next year. For enterprises with no overproduction space and no capacity to supplement, they can only produce in strict accordance with the approved capacity. It is difficult to reconcile the uneven and "unfair" contradictions at the
operational level, which will further aggravate the instability of the cement market next year. It can be predicted that after this round of supplementary production, a new round of market competition in the cement industry will begin .
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