1. Contradictions at the bottom of the industry: the rigid outbreak of phosphoric acid demand, the existence of a permanent ceiling for the supply of imported sulfur, the inability to match production capacity in a timely manner due to the superposition of the red line of site selection, and the high boom cycle of sulfuric acid is expected to maintain for 7 to 10 years
. China's sulfur tension is not a phased market caused by short-term geopolitical conflicts. Even if the Middle East sulfur shipping is completely unblocked and the import volume returns to its historical peak, it will not cover the incremental demand for sulfuric acid brought about by the explosive growth of the domestic phosphoric acid industry chain; At the same time, the national environmental impact assessment and industrial policy have made it clear that phosphogypsum acid production is a critical chemical process, which is limited to the access construction of chemical industry parks, and that non-parks, ordinary industrial parks and private plots are prohibited from approving new construction, reconstruction and expansion projects. Under the resonance of
multiple constraints, the imbalance between supply and demand has a long-term sustainability. Based on the comprehensive judgment of the global sulfur supply elasticity, the expansion cycle of new energy lithium iron phosphate industry and the new capacity landing cycle of chemical industry parks, this round of sulfuric acid boom cycle is expected to last for 7 to 10 years, and the industry is in a pattern of tight supply balance and systematic upward price center for a long time. The superposition of
three hard constraints: the peak of total overseas resources + limited space for domestic production capacity landing + continuous expansion of downstream demand for 7-10 years, resulting in the industry's 10 million tons of sulfuric acid gap can not be quickly filled, and the imbalance between supply and demand has been upgraded from "shortage of resources" to a long-term structural deadlock of "shortage of resources + limited capacity landing".
(1) Demand side: the whole industry chain of phosphoric acid expands synchronously, the increment of sulfur consumption completely breaks through the upper limit of import supply, and the domestic consumption structure of sulfuric acid has been fundamentally reconstructed to support the long-term prosperity
of 7 to 10 years. The traditional agricultural phosphate fertilizer just needs to be stable, and the new energy lithium iron phosphate brings a large amount of new demand for sulfur. The two tracks expanded synchronously and continued to devour the global circulating sulfur resources.
1. Under the strategy of maintaining high
rigid demand for agricultural wet-process phosphoric acid and food security, the domestic production capacity of phosphate and compound fertilizer has been running steadily for a long time, consuming 1.6 tons of industrial sulfuric acid for every ton of wet-process phosphoric acid produced, corresponding to 0. It belongs to the uncompressible rigid demand of people's livelihood, and the start-up load is compulsorily guaranteed by the policy, so it is impossible to hedge the shortage of sulfur by reducing production.
2. Measured data of the industry: each ton of lithium iron phosphate drives about 0.
Wind and solar energy storage, household energy storage and AI supporting energy storage will continue to be released in the next 7 to 10 years, and the lithium iron phosphate industry will maintain a high production rhythm for a long time; From 2025 to 2026, the new production capacity of domestic lithium iron phosphate corresponds to the new annual demand for sulfur of more than 3.3 million tons; with the simultaneous new production capacity of supporting refined phosphoric acid and battery-grade phosphoric acid, the new annual consumption of sulfur in the new energy sector alone is close to 3.5 million tons, and the corresponding new demand for sulfuric acid is about 11.6 million tons per year. Within 7-10 years, there is no cliff-like decline in downstream energy storage and power battery demand, which will continue to create a rigid increment of sulfuric acid.
3. New energy phosphoric acid added 3.5 million tons/year of sulfur demand is a pure incremental gap, and the total increment of global circulating sulfur trade is less than 500,000 tons/year, which can not be filled by overseas sources.
The authoritative supply and demand balance calculation conclusion is that the domestic phosphoric acid (agricultural + new energy) industry chain needs to produce at least 10 million tons of sulfuric acid by phosphogypsum acid production process every year to match the rigid incremental gap of continuous expansion of phosphoric acid production at present and in the next 7 to 10 years. Relying solely on imports, acid smelting and pyrite acid production has been completely unable to support the expansion of the industry.
(II) Supply side: The global sulfur production increase space has peaked, there is no large-scale new supply in 7 to 10 years, and the import dependence cannot be guaranteed
for a long time. 1.2
. Even if the geography is relaxed and the routes are smooth, there is a ceiling for the amount of sulfur from the Middle East that can be stabilized to Hong Kong every year. The demand for sulfuric acid corresponding to the new phosphoric acid production capacity can not be undertaken by overseas sulfur resources. Geopolitical conflicts and shipping control in the Middle East will be normal disturbances in the next 7-10 years, and the stability of imported sulfur supply will continue to be weak.
3.
(III) Policy side: Phosphogypsum acid production is limited to the construction of chemical industry parks, which further locks up the release speed
of production capacity within a period of 7 to 10 years. According to the latest guidelines for environmental assessment and review of phosphorus chemical industry by the Ministry of Ecology and Environment and provinces, the negative list of the Yangtze River Economic Zone and the detailed rules for access to chemical industry parks, The project of co-production of sulfuric acid and cement clinker from phosphogypsum pyrolysis is a typical high-risk chemical production project, which implements a strict park access system, forms a strong rigid constraint on landing, and lengthens the tight balance cycle between supply and demand. Supporting the long-term prosperity of sulfuric acid for 7 to 10 years:
1.2. However, more than 70% of the production capacity of large-scale phosphate compound fertilizer and lithium iron phosphate in China is concentrated along the upper and middle reaches of the Yangtze River, and a large number of high-quality production areas have no land indicators for new chemical industry parks, and the compliance plots with landing conditions are extremely scarce. 3.4
. The superposition of the three factors determines that the domestic phosphoric acid industry will not be able to break the bottleneck of raw material supply for a long time in the next 7 to 10 years, and sulfuric acid will maintain a high prosperity.
(4) The environmental constraints on phosphogypsum stockpiling are tightened synchronously. The double contradiction can not be resolved
alone in 7 to 10 years. 4. In the next 7 to 10 years, environmental protection control will only continue to increase:
1. The approval of new and expanded phosphogypsum slag yards will be frozen in an all-round way, and the main production areas of the Yangtze River and Yunnan and Guizhou will strictly implement the "slag production". 1. Phosphoric acid capacity expansion must be matched with 100% solid waste absorption capacity;
2. Traditional building materials and roadbed backfill absorption paths are limited by 200-300 km transportation radius, the absorption scale is limited, and the sulfur resources in gypsum are completely wasted, which belongs to the inefficient scheme of "only solid waste disposal, not solving sulfur deficiency";
3.
To sum up, the total amount of overseas sulfur resources is insufficient, the production capacity of alternative processes is insufficient, the implementation of domestic policies is limited, and the demand for downstream new energy phosphoric acid will continue to expand for 7 \ 10 years. The rigid gap of 10 million tons of sulfuric acid in the * * industry will exist for a long time and can not be repaired naturally. Sulfuric acid boom cycle is expected to last 7 \ 10 years * *. In this context, the large-scale standardized single-line co-production plant of 800000 tons of sulfuric acid + 1 million tons of cement clinker has become the only large-scale solution with the largest single project capacity, the strongest solid waste consumption, the highest gap filling efficiency and the stable profit of 7-10 years in the compliance chemical industry park and under the limited land index.
2. The core logic of the process and the technical advantages
of 800000 + 1 million tons of clinker single-line scale (1) Closed-loop cycle thoroughly hedges the gap of 10 million tons of sulfuric acid in the phosphoric acid industry. The whole set of equipment, which is suitable for the investment window
of 7-10 years, takes phosphogypsum, a by-product of phosphoric acid, as the only core raw material, does not need to purchase sulfur from outside, only supplements limestone as an auxiliary material, and the complete material cycle is completely suitable for the production capacity of large phosphoric acid bases. The design service life of the equipment is 20 years. Perfectly cover the complete cycle of sulfuric acid boom for 7 to 10 years, and enjoy the high price dividend of sulfuric acid in the whole process:
1. Pretreatment, dehydration and purification: screening and drying of primary dihydrate phosphogypsum to remove free water, fluorine and phosphorus impurities, reduce calcination energy consumption, and ensure the quality of sulfuric acid and clinker products;
2. reduction and decomposition to produce industrial sulfuric acid: gypsum is reduce and decomposed at high temperature to release SOSO, and 98% high-purity concentrate sulfuric acid is produced through double conversion and double absorption, all of which are refluxed to support that production lines of wet-process phosphoric acid and refine phosphoric acid, and the sulfur element is circulated from phosphoric acid to phosphogypsum to sulfuric acid for unlimited times;
3. High-temperature calcination and co-production of cement clinker: calcium-based materials after gypsum decomposition are matched with a small amount of silicon-aluminum-iron auxiliary materials, and the solid-phase reaction produces the national standard 42.
Single-line full-capacity material balance: 3.2 million tons of primary phosphogypsum are consumed annually, and 800,000 tons of industrial sulfuric acid and 1 million tons of cement clinker are produced steadily. A single set of 800000 tons of self-produced sulfuric acid plant can directly support about 500000 tons of wet-process phosphoric acid production capacity, and a number of single-line centralized layout of this specification is the main standardized device to fill the gap of at least 10 million tons of phosphogypsum acid production in the industry every year, without importing an additional ton of sulfur to fill the gap of phosphoric acid increment, and to resolve the total overseas supply from the source. It will continue to lock in the supply of low-cost sulfuric acid in the high boom period of 7 to 10 years.
(2) Long-term barriers to
the scale of the third generation of super-large single-line process are currently mature third-generation intelligent co-production units, which solve the shortcomings of high energy consumption, low sulfur conversion rate and unstable product quality of small and medium-sized units, and 800000 tons of sulfuric acid + 1 million tons of clinker single-line has irreplaceable scale advantages. The whole cycle is suitable for 7 to 10 years of long-term prosperous operation:
1. The energy consumption advantage is significant: the consumption of coke per ton of sulfuric acid is 75kg, the supporting waste heat power generation at the kiln tail covers more than 40% of the power consumption of the whole plant, and the comprehensive energy consumption is reduced by 25% -30% compared with the "purchased sulfur-based sulfuric acid + independent cement line";
2. that sulfur conversion efficiency is stable: the comprehensive conversion rate of the sulfur is more than or equal to 96%, the purity of the self-produced sulfuric acid meet the production standard of battery-grade phosphoric acid, and the self-produced sulfuric acid can be directly supplied to the lithium iron phosphate production line to make up for the short quality of smelt acid and pyrite acid;
3. Extremely diluted fixed costs: equipment depreciation, labor, environmental protection, public and auxiliary supporting costs are shared by super-large production capacity, and the unit production cost of sulfuric acid and clinker is far better than that of small and medium-sized co-production units;
4. Continuous and stable operation: automatic central control of the whole process, annual effective operation of more than 330 days, plant operating rate ≥ 92%, stable supply of sulfuric acid for phosphoric acid plant throughout the year, matching the continuous expansion of phosphoric acid and lithium iron phosphate for 7 to 10 years, and continuous production demand throughout the year;
5.
III. 800,000-ton sulfuric acid + 1,000,000-ton clinker single line project: Quantitative analysis of
investment and multi-dimensional long-term benefits (I) Total investment and investment structure of the project (industry landing standard data)
This single line is an integrated complete set of equipment. The total static investment of the project is about 1.85 billion yuan, including complete phosphogypsum storage pretreatment, large-scale rotary kiln calcination, SO2acid conversion, waste heat power generation, ultra-low emission environmental protection, intelligent central control, finished product storage and public works. Breakdown of investment:
1. 1.22 billion yuan for main process equipment: core equipment for gypsum pretreatment, large-scale calcination rotary kiln, acid-making conversion and absorption, and clinker cooling and molding;
2. Waste heat power generation and power system: 230 million yuan: waste heat boiler at kiln tail, generator set, high and low voltage power distribution, to achieve energy self-sufficiency and cost reduction;
3. Environmental protection and safety support of 180 million yuan: ultra-low emission of tail gas, closed circulation of wastewater, solid waste pretreatment, safety and provention and control system, to meet the most stringent environmental standards in the Yangtze River Basin;
4. Civil engineering and public works: 140 million yuan: production workshop, raw material/finished product warehouse, pipe network road, water supply and drainage system;
5. Reserve fund and interest during the construction period 0.
Core parameters: the design service life of the plant is 20 years, the residual value rate is 5%, there is no large amount of continuous investment in technological transformation after full production, and the pressure of long-term depreciation and amortization is stable and controllable; A single unit adds 800000 tons of circulating sulfuric acid supply annually, which is the most efficient standardized main unit to fill the gap of 10 million tons of sulfuric acid per year in China and cover the high boom cycle of sulfuric acid for 7 to 10 years under the limited access conditions of chemical industry parks.
(II) Core economic benefits: fill the gap of ten million tons of sulfur in phosphoric acid, and fully cash the high prosperity dividend of sulfuric acid for 7 to 10 years. Long-term stable profit
of dual products 1.
Calculation of full production of 800,000 tons of sulfuric acid in a single line:
• Annual revenue of sulfuric acid: calculated based on the average market price of 1900 yuan/ton, the annual revenue is 1.52 billion yuan;
• The stable gross profit per ton of sulfuric acid is about 1400 yuan, and the annual net profit after tax of the sulfuric acid segment is stable at 8.5-9. The annual independent supply of sulfuric acid is 800000 tons, and the direct supporting enterprises increase the production capacity of refined phosphoric acid and lithium iron phosphate, and the single line of this specification is put into operation in batches nationwide. Jointly complete the industry's annual production capacity of at least 10 million tons of phosphogypsum acid supporting tasks; Enterprises laying out the plant will no longer compete for the global limited sulfur import quota from the Middle East, and will realize full-load expansion of the phosphoric acid industry chain and continue to seize the market share of new energy materials within 7 \ 10 years when their peers are forced to limit the production of new energy phosphoric acid due to the double restrictions of total sulfur quantity and policy site selection; Reduce the import demand of 800000 tons of sulfur every year, greatly reduce the foreign exchange purchasing expenditure of enterprises, and avoid the ceiling of production capacity caused by insufficient global sulfur resources.
Even if the import of sulfur from the Middle East is fully restored to the highest level in history in the future, the total amount of sulfur that can be circulated in the world can not meet the incremental demand for phosphoric acid in China, and the red line restriction of the park where the domestic acid production capacity falls to the ground is superimposed, there will still be a hard gap of tens of millions of tons of sulfuric acid in the industry every year in the next 7 to 10 years, and there will be a group with multiple sets of co-production units. It is equivalent to holding the barrier of independent production capacity of scarce sulfuric acid, which is policy-compliant, non-replicable and not subject to overseas constraints, and fully consuming all the profits of this long boom cycle.
2.
• The annual cost of limestone mine operation and maintenance and procurement is saved by more than 120 million yuan, and the risk of tightening domestic limestone resources and controlling the price increase of mining rights is avoided for a long time;
• The average market price of clinker is 480 yuan/ton, and the annual revenue of 1 million tons of clinker is 480 million yuan, after deducting auxiliary materials, energy consumption and labor. Annual net profit after tax of clinker segment 1.2 —
1.3.4
.
(III) Long-term benefits of strategic resource security: break the total import sulfur constraint of phosphoric acid industry. The annual supply gap
of 10 million tons of sulfuric acid will continue to be filled in 7-10 years. 1.2.3
.
(4) Long-term dividend of double-carbon environmental protection and policy. 1.2.3
.
IV. Existing constraints and long-term optimization of landing path
for super-large single-line projects (I) Core landing constraints (new policy site selection constraints, improve the four major constraints. 1.2.3
. Large
scale of initial one-time capital investment 18.4.
(2) Long-term efficiency optimization path. Maximize the income
of sulfuric acid boom cycle of 7 ~ 10 years 1.2.3.4
.
V. The ultimate conclusion of the industry: the super-large co-production plant is to cope with the outbreak of phosphoric acid demand, insufficient total sulfur, limited policy implementation, The four-fold irreversible underlying logic of the
industry has been finalized:
1. Overseas resources are dead: even if the import of sulfur from the Middle East is completely smooth, the total volume of global sulfur trade can not meet the incremental demand for new energy phosphoric acid, and there is a natural gap of 10 million tons of sulfuric acid every year;
2. Domestic demand will continue to expand for 7 to 10 years: phosphate fertilizer just needs to stabilize the market, energy storage + power battery drive lithium iron phosphate to expand production for a long time. According to the comprehensive calculation of the industrial chain, the high boom cycle of sulfuric acid in this round is expected to last for 7 to 10 years, and the tight supply balance pattern of the industry will continue for a long time;
3. Capacity implementation policy capping: the phosphogypsum sulphuric acid production is limited to the construction of chemical industry parks, and the compliance land, energy consumption and emission indicators are scarce. The new circulating sulphuric acid production capacity continues to lag behind the demand growth, and the gap cannot be repaired in the short term;
4.
According to the balance of supply and demand, the domestic phosphoric acid industry chain needs to rely on the phosphogypsum acid production process to produce at least 10 million tons of sulfuric acid every year to match the rigid incremental demand for the continuous expansion of phosphate fertilizer and power battery materials; With the continuous tightening of "production based on slag", double carbon and solid waste treatment, the traditional mode of outsourcing sulfur + phosphogypsum stockpiling is difficult to sustain in the long boom cycle of 7 to 10 years. The large-scale single-line phosphogypsum sulphuric acid co-production clinker process with an annual output
of 800000 tons of sulphuric acid and 1 million tons of cement clinker is the main standardized equipment to fill the gap of 10 million tons of self-produced sulphuric acid per year, and is a long-term industrial solution covering the 7-10 year high boom cycle of sulphuric acid in this round and locking in the long-term low-cost sulphuric acid supply at one time. The four irreplaceable long-term values are clearly highlighted:
1. Long-term supply barrier moat: a single set produces 800,000 tons of sulfuric acid independently every year, and the batch layout can jointly complete the supporting task of at least 10 million tons of circulating sulfuric acid in the industry every year, so as to fully grasp the high price dividend of sulfuric acid in 7 to 10 years. Fully cover the demand for raw materials for new production capacity of phosphoric acid and lithium iron phosphate, and no longer compete for the limited import quota of sulfur from the Middle East. When the peers are forced to limit production by the total amount of global sulfur resources and the location of the park, the enterprises can continue to expand the production of new energy phosphoric acid track and seize the long-term incremental market;
2. Permanent cost advantage, long-term stable cash flow: the cost of self-produced sulphuric acid is only 1/4 of that of purchased sulphur-burning sulphuric acid production for a long time, the dual-product cycle hedging smoothes the full-cycle profit of 7-10 years, synchronously clears the annual cost of phosphogypsum storage and treatment of hundreds of millions of yuan, and the plant continues to create high and stable cash flow for 20 years. Enterprises have sufficient power to build new plants to fill the gap of 10 million tons of sulfuric acid in the industry;
3. Strategic value of national resource security: a single set of single line builds an infinite sulfur circulation system within the enterprise every year, reducing the annual import of 800000 tons of sulfur, and the simultaneous implementation of multiple sets of units can reduce the external purchase of 10 million tons of sulfur every year, greatly reducing the external dependence of national sulfur resources in a 7-10 year cycle, and alleviating the hard gap between supply and demand of sulfuric acid. Guarantee the autonomy and controllability of raw materials in the two core industrial chains of grain, agricultural materials and power batteries;
4.
Under the long-term industry pattern that the demand for phosphoric acid continues to erupt, the total amount of imported sulfur can not match the increment, the acid-making project is strictly controlled by the policy of the chemical industry park, and the high boom cycle of sulfuric acid is expected to maintain for 7 to 10 years. The batch layout of 800000 tons of sulfuric acid + 1 million tons of clinker super-large single-line co-production plant in the head of phosphorus chemical enterprises is the core grasp to fill the gap of at least 10 million tons of circulating sulfuric acid in China every year and to fully eat the dividend of this round of long-term prosperity, which will reconstruct the competition pattern of industry cost and supply, and promote the development of the whole industry. It has become the core supporting technology to support the long-term sustainable expansion of phosphoric acid and lithium iron phosphate industry.
Disclaimer: The investment and benefit calculation in this paper is based on the market price of bulk commodities in 2026, the measured operation data of the third generation large-scale cogeneration plant and the current environmental protection and tax policies; the international sulfur price, energy cost, local energy consumption index and plant operation and maintenance level fluctuate, and the actual project income will have a small deviation; In this paper, the annual demand for at least 10 million tons of phosphogypsum for sulfuric acid production and the long boom cycle of sulfuric acid for 7 to 10 years are judged as the bottom line conclusion for the comprehensive calculation of the supply and demand balance of the whole industry chain of phosphoric acid in China, the expansion cycle of new energy and the elasticity of global sulfur supply, which is only used as a reference for the medium and long-term strategic analysis of the industry and does not constitute the basis for any project investment decision.
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