Preface: The only two core laws
that will not change in the future of the real estate market are that the high price depends on the location, the increase depends on the industrial location, which determines the bottom line of housing price preservation, and the industrial population determines the elasticity of housing price rise.
Luxury take consumption to show off attributes, Kechuang just need to take the cycle of investment flexibility attributes, the future property market is completely polarized: luxury does not earn gains, only earn identity face; Kechuang just need not earn steady, only earn market excess gains.
Based on the above logic, the original eight plates in Hangzhou are all integrated and reconstructed into four value echelons, ranking from high value to low value. Part
I Layered Resumption and Trend Prediction
of the Four Major Plates in Hangzhou I. The first echelon: the super luxury housing plate on both sides of the Qianjiang River (the value ceiling of the whole city)
includes
Nanxing, Qianjiang New Town Phase I and II, Jianghe Hui,
In recent years, the trend characteristics
of Qianjiang Century City along the river are the first in the city, and the market callback is only a small withdrawal of 5% -10%, never deep trampling.
High net worth people have strong demand for self-living, circle and identity, and are not affected by the fluctuation of the rigid demand market. Land with river view
in the main city is permanently scarce, and each generation of new luxury houses continues to break through the price ceiling.
Core new logic: luxury completely from [investment attributes to top consumer attributes]
luxury rich people buy houses, not to make money, but to show off identity, circle admission, social facade.
Rich people do not care whether the price of houses rises or not, but only whether the location is core enough, the products are top-notch enough, and the circles are high-end enough. There is a phenomenon of complete decoupling of new and old prices in the
luxury housing market:
old and second-hand luxury housing: aging, outdated design, prices basically sideways, no longer a new high
, a new generation of top-luxury housing: product iteration, resource iteration, circle iteration. Continue to refresh the city's highest price
summary: luxury plate will always be strong, new houses will always rise in price, and old houses will no longer increase in value. Luxury houses are luxury goods, status symbols, not financial tools.
The future trend
is only to preserve value, not to soar; it is stable, not to fall; it is a top consumer asset, not an investment arbitrage asset, and it can only run flat inflation in the long run, with no room for excess appreciation.
2. The second echelon: the traditional core urban area plate (Shangcheng, Gongshu, Old West Lake core)
includes
lakeside, Wulin, Grand Canal, Shenhua,
In recent years, the trend of mature supporting areas in the core of the old city has been characterized by
the extreme maturity of urban supporting facilities, with medical, commercial, school districts and transportation all top-matching, and the housing price chassis is extremely stable.
The new improvement is very value-preserving, the old, old and small continue to depreciate, and the internal polarization is serious. There is almost no new supply of
land, urban renewal is slow, there is no speculation market, only a steady market. Full marks in
core logic
areas and insufficient industrial increments can keep the bottom line of prices, but there is a lack of continuous influx of young high-paying industrial population, so the value preservation is strong and the growth rate is weak. The
trend
in the future is to go sideways for a long time with a slight increase in value after deducting inflation. It is highly resilient and generally flexible. It is suitable for improvement of self-occupation and asset hedging, but not suitable for gaining high returns.
3. The third echelon: the flexible plate of Kechuang Industrial New Area (Binjiang, Future Science and Technology City, Century City, Shibei)
covers
the whole area of Binjiang, Future Science and Technology City, Qianjiang Century City, The trend
of Xiaoshan North Industrial Core Area
in recent years is the only one in Hangzhou with sustained high-end industries and the influx of young and high-paid people. The
property market has the deepest callback in the downward period, the strongest rebound in the recovery period, and the greatest flexibility in Hangzhou.
It does not rely on the resources of the old city, the scarcity of river scenery, and the purchasing power of young people to support the market.
The core top-level investment logic (the biggest opportunity to make money in the future real estate market)
Shanghai, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, Wuhan and Hefei, the five potential cities, are just in need of innovative plates, which are the only highly flexible assets in the future real estate market. When the market
falls sharply, young people wait and see, enterprises shrink, employment slows down, the purchasing power of rigid demand disappears, and prices are deeply adjusted back.
The recovery of the soaring market, the recovery of the industry, the settlement of a large number of young people, the concentrated outbreak of rigid demand, the low total price, the large number of people taking over, the increase is far more than luxury houses, far more than old city.
Long-term value-added space prediction
is based on the continuous expansion of industry, the continuous introduction of high-paid talents for ten years, the gradual improvement of supporting facilities, and the tightening of land supply year by year. The actual increase space can reach 100% to 200%. Underlying support: The continuous implementation of new quality productivity has brought about an increase in the income of residents, the release of the effect of creating wealth by science and technology enterprises, and the continuous settlement of hundreds of thousands of young people who just need to settle down every year, resulting in a long-term tight supply and demand; with the superposition of more than ten years of cyclical fluctuations in the real estate market, the purchase at a low price and the realization of the cycle can double or even double the actual appreciation, which is the best medium and long-term value-added track in the real estate market.
Summarize
the stability of the old city, Kechuang to make money; the value of luxury houses, just need to eat the increase.
The future trend
has the strongest structural market, the greatest flexibility and the highest growth space, which is the only sector in Hangzhou that can obtain excess value-added in the future.
IV. The fourth echelon: the weak sectors in the outer suburbs (Linping, Qiantang, Fuyang, Tonglu, Linan, Chun'an, Jiande and the south of Xiaoshan)
include
all the suburbs, outer suburbs, cultural tourism sectors, non-industrial sectors, The trend of township plate
is characterized
by no high-end industry, no inflow of a large number of young people, and no top-level supporting facilities.
In recent years, it has continued to fall, the bubble has continued to clear, and the cycle of de-industrialization is very long.
Second-hand liquidity is extremely poor, with more listings, fewer transactions and normalization of price reduction.
The core logic
is that there is no top location, no incremental industry, no value-preserving basis, and no upward momentum.
The future trend
is only suitable for local people who just need to live on their own, with no investment value, no value-added space, long-term horizontal decline, and a high probability of continued depreciation after deducting inflation.
The second part is the ultimate ranking of national urban housing price potential (new Hefei and Wuhan precise core area guidelines)
. The first echelon: Shanghai (national value-preserving ceiling)
has the strongest precipitation of national financial core, resource monopoly and high net worth population, and the core assets are always strong; Zhangjiang, Qiantan and other mature Kechuang plates just need to have 10 years of 100% -200% real growth potential.
II. The second echelon: Shenzhen (the ceiling of Kechuang's growth)
ranked first in the high-tech industry in the country, with the continuous net inflow of young talents, and the Kechuang District had the strongest flexibility in the country; Nanshan, Guangming and Qianhai industries had considerable long-term value-added space.
Third, the third echelon: Hangzhou (the strongest structural market of digital economy)
has a solid Internet, AI and e-commerce industry, and the young population continues to flow in. Binjiang, Future Science and Technology City and Century City are the core flexible targets.
4. The fourth echelon: Hefei and Wuhan (dual-core growth cities in central China)
Hefei: Focus on the layout of Binhu New Area
Binhu New Area is the new center of Hefei City, the core of Anhui Free Trade Experimental Zone and the carrier of Binhu Science City, gathering three pillar industries of financial backstage, digital science and technology innovation and exhibition. The central axis of the provincial government, the financial core area and the surrounding areas of Luogang Park are the preferred targets, and the industrial population continues to be introduced to meet the logic of the actual increase of 100% -200% in 10 years. It is necessary to avoid the large market in the outer suburbs of the lakeside, and only the supporting areas of core industries have value-added elasticity.
Wuhan: Focus on the layout of East Lake High-tech Zone (Optical Valley)
East Lake High-tech Zone is the highland of optoelectronics, biomedicine and artificial intelligence in central China. Universities and high-tech enterprises are highly concentrated, and a large number of young technical talents continue to settle down; Guanshan Avenue and the core area of the central city of Optics Valley are the best choice for the newly needed subway projects. Although they have experienced deep adjustment in the short term, the long-term industrial fundamentals remain unchanged. After the market recovers, the explosive force of the rise is sufficient, which is in line with the expectation of doubling to doubling the actual value-added in ten years. There is no supporting plate at the far end of Optics Valley and no investment value.
Common prediction: the two cities only have value-added potential in the core of the main city and the mature industrial new area, while the outer suburbs and the new area without supporting facilities have a long-term horizontal market, which is only suitable for the local people who just need to live.
Fifth, the fifth echelon: the rest of the second, third and fourth-tier cities
in the country are not optimistic as a whole, with no sustained high-paying industries, population outflow, only a small value preservation in the old city, no rising market, and basically no income after deducting inflation.
Sixth, the sixth echelon: the vast majority of counties
in the country basically have no investment value, net outflow of population, no industry, no takeover, liquidity exhaustion, long-term underperformance of inflation.
The third part is the final summary
of the full text. 1. The location keeps the bottom line, the
core location decides not to fall, and the high-end industry population decides the space to rise.
2. Assets are thoroughly divided into two types
of luxury assets (on both sides of the Qianjiang River): consumption attributes, identity attributes, only preserving value but not increasing value. The rich buy face, circles and status, and only run inflation for a long time, unable to earn excess differential profits.
Kechuang just needs assets (Binjiang, Future Science and Technology City, Century City and Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hanhe Science and Technology Innovation Zone, Hefei Binhu New Area and Wuhan Donghu High-tech Zone are the core targets in the central region): investment attributes, cycle attributes, flexibility, the biggest trough, the biggest drop, the biggest rise, the total price is low and the increase is high; In the next 10 years, the real increase after deducting inflation will be 100%-200%, which is the only way to make money in the future.
3. There are only five cities with structural opportunities
in China, namely Shanghai, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, Wuhan and Hefei: Shanghai Zhangjiang/Qiantan, Shenzhen Nanshan/Qianhai, Hangzhou Binjiang/Future Science and Technology City, Wuhan Donghu High-tech Zone (Optical Valley) and Hefei Binhu New Area. Only the above mature and innovative industrial zones just need to have the potential of excess growth.
4. In the future, the permanent pattern
of the real estate market will be stable in the old city and rising in the new city; luxury houses will be guaranteed and just need to make money; the general rise will be completely ended, and the ultimate differentiation will continue forever.
Risk warning: This analysis is based on the logical deduction of industry, population and location. The actual increase of 100% -200% in 10 years is the prediction of medium and long-term optimistic scenarios. It is uncertain due to multiple variables such as macro-economy, credit policy, industrial landing progress, land supply and property market regulation, and does not constitute any investment advice for house purchase.
浙公网安备33010802003254号