According to the latest public information, the investment in water network construction in China during the 15th Five-Year Plan period (2026-2030) is expected to exceed 6 trillion yuan, with an average annual investment of more than 1.2 trillion yuan. This huge investment aims to build a modern national water network, solve the problem of uneven distribution of water resources in time and space, and promote the development of upstream and downstream industrial chains.
So, how much of the 6 trillion yuan can be converted into cement orders? Can downward trend of cement demand be stopped?
AI production map is for reference
only. 4.2 to 5.4 trillion yuan is invested in cement related fields
. Water network investment is not monolithic. Dam, water diversion, irrigation area, water supply network, ecological restoration, digital twin-the consumption intensity of cement varies greatly among different types of projects. To answer the question of "how much cement can be pulled", we must first disassemble the investment plate according to the "cement density".
At present, the proportion of formal sub-items of water network investment planning has not been publicly disclosed, but referring to the actual structure of water resources investment in the 14th Five-Year Plan, a more reliable judgment can be made.
Over the years, major water conservancy projects and flood control and disaster reduction projects have accounted for about 40% to 50% of the total investment in the water network-dams, reservoirs, dikes, water diversion projects, etc. Concrete consumption is huge, and every 100 million yuan of investment drives about 5000 to 8000 tons of cement. Urban and rural water supply and irrigation area construction account for about 30% to 40%-water plants, pumping stations, water pipelines, irrigation channels, etc. Although the cement density is lower than that of dams, it can still consume 3000-4000 tons of cement per 100 million yuan.
The two together account for 70% to 90% of the total investment in the water network. The remaining less than 30% belong to the field of water ecological protection and information construction-digital twin, intelligent monitoring, ecological restoration and other projects, and the consumption of cement is almost negligible.
According to this, in the "15th Five-Year Plan" water network investment, the corresponding investment scale of cement high-consumption projects is between 4.2 trillion and 5.4 trillion yuan, with an average annual investment of 840 billion to 1.08 trillion yuan. The median value is about 4.8 trillion yuan, with an average annual value of about 960 billion yuan (cement-related investment fields).
Or annual contribution of 35 million to 60 million tons of cement demand
In 2025, the national cement output was about 1.693 billion tons, down about 6.9% year-on-year, and the output has been declining for five consecutive years, nearly 30% less than peak of 2.38 billion tons in 2020. The capacity utilization rate of the industry has dropped to less than 50%, and even less than 40% in some provinces. From January to April 2026, the national cement output was 443 million tons, down 8.6% from the same period last year, and the downward momentum did not stabilize.
According to the calculation of 3500-6000 tons of cement demand per 100 million yuan of water conservancy investment, the "15th Five-Year Plan" water network project can contribute about 35 million to 60 million tons of demand increment to the cement industry every year.
This increment is not small in absolute value, but it can not change the overall trend of rapid downward demand for cement.
First, the incremental release is uneven. The large-scale physical release of the water network project will not be concentrated until the middle and late stages. In the previous two years, it was still dominated by planning and design, land acquisition and demolition, and earthwork in the early stage, with limited cement consumption.
Second, the real estate demand gap is far greater than increment of water resources. In 2025, the investment in real estate development decreased by about 11% compared with the same period last year, and the new construction area is still bottoming out. Real estate accounts for about 30% of the total demand for cement, and in recent years, the average annual reduction of cement demand has reached about 120 million tons-this gap alone will continue to significantly reduce the total demand for cement.
Third, the most important thing is the mirror of the 14th Five-Year Plan. Water conservancy investment in the 14th Five-Year Plan was 5.68 trillion yuan, exceeding trillion yuan for four consecutive years since 2022, but cement production still dropped from 1.83 billion tons to 1.693 billion tons in these four years. This shows that even if the investment in water resources reaches the trillion level, the demand gap brought about by the downturn of real estate and overall infrastructure can not be filled by water resources alone, and the situation of the "15th Five-Year Plan" will not be essentially different. To put
it bluntly, the cement demand brought about by 6 trillion yuan of water conservancy investment is the original "jigsaw puzzle" rather than increment, which can not change the downward trend of domestic cement demand.
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