On June 21, the State Council issued the Fifteenth Five-Year Plan for the Construction of Beautiful China (Guofa [2026] 20), which delineated a clear road map and timetable for the construction of Beautiful China by 2030. This plan is not only the top-level design of ecological civilization at the national level, but also draws six clear high-voltage lines for the development of the cement industry during the 15th Five-Year Plan period.
Six "high-voltage lines": the bottom line
drawn by the policy for the cement industry. The first one is that the ultra-low emission transformation has entered the deep water area. The Plan clearly puts forward the idea of "further promoting the transformation of ultra-low emissions in key industries such as cement and coking". It means that the ultra-low emission transformation of cement industry has entered the stage of "comprehensive development" from "pilot demonstration". According to the previous "Opinions on Promoting the Implementation of Ultra-low Emission in Cement Industry", 80% of cement clinker production capacity will be transformed into ultra-low emission by the end of 2028. For enterprises that have not yet completed the transformation, the time window is narrowing rapidly. Article
2: The "double control" of the total amount and intensity of carbon emissions shall be fully implemented. The Plan clearly States that "the system of double control of total carbon emissions and intensity should be implemented in an all-round way", and the system transformation from "double control of energy consumption" to "double control of carbon emissions" has officially landed. The annual carbon emissions of cement industry reach about 1 billion tons, which is a major carbon emitter in the industrial field. Under the dual-control system, carbon emissions will change from "soft constraints" to "hard targets", and the carbon emission intensity per ton of clinker will directly affect the production capacity indicators and production space.
AI Health Map is for reference
only. Article 3: Carbon Market Expansion + Quota from Free to Paid. The Plan proposes to "expand the coverage of the national carbon emissions trading market in an orderly manner" and "steadily implement a combination of free and paid quota allocation". In the top-level design of the national carbon market, the direction of "paid distribution" is clearly defined-the carbon quota of the cement industry will change from "free lunch" to a factor of production that needs to be purchased with real gold and silver. At present, the carbon price has reached the range of 70-90 yuan/ton. According to the 10% quota gap of the industry, the annual carbon quota procurement expenditure of the whole industry will exceed 5 billion yuan. Article
4: The target of minimum proportion of renewable energy consumption. The Plan calls for "promoting the green and clean development of key energy-using industries, gradually defining the minimum proportion of renewable energy consumption, and building a number of green factories". This will form a policy synergy with the "Minimum Proportion Target of Renewable Energy Consumption and Implementation Measures of Renewable Energy Power Consumption Responsibility Weight System" which will be implemented on August 1 this year-cement enterprises should not only "reduce carbon emissions", but also "use more green electricity", and neither leg can be lame.
AI production map is for reference
only. Article 5: Low efficiency, high energy consumption and high emission processes are facing elimination. The Plan clearly States that "the guidance catalogue for industrial restructuring should be revised to include inefficient, energy-intensive and high-emission processes and equipment in the elimination catalogue". This means that a number of cement clinker production lines with substandard energy efficiency will face compulsory withdrawal-not the question of "whether to withdraw", but the question of "when to withdraw". Article
6: Product carbon footprint management brings full chain constraints. The Plan calls for "improving the management system of product carbon footprint, improving the system of identification certification, hierarchical management and information disclosure, and promoting international mutual recognition of product carbon footprint rules". Once the carbon footprint enters the labeling and grading management, it will directly affect the market access and pricing system of cement products. Cement with high carbon footprint will not only face the threshold of green procurement in the domestic market, but also encounter the realistic constraints of the carbon border adjustment mechanism at the export end.
From Passive to Active-The Strategic Value
of the Window Period The six high-voltage lines are not unreachable long-term goals, but hard constraints that must be fulfilled during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period. The goal
of 2035 is bound to be achieved, ultra-low emission transformation, carbon emission control standards, the proportion of renewable energy consumption, carbon market compliance-each of which needs to be laid out ahead of time and promoted year by year, none of which can be "said at that time".
But the high-voltage line is also a watershed. Paid carbon quotas mean that the ability to manage carbon assets will become one of the core competitiveness of enterprises-good management can make money by selling quotas, and bad management is an additional cost burden. The introduction of the elimination catalogue will accelerate the clearance of backward production capacity, which is precisely the window period for enterprises to take the lead in completing the green transformation. Every tightening of the policy is reshaping the competition pattern of the industry-compliance is not the end point, but the starting point to seize the opportunity in the new pattern.
AI Health Map is only for reference
. In the face of this top-level plan with six high-voltage lines, The 15th China Cement Energy Conservation and Environmental Protection Technology Exchange Conference and the 7th Intelligent Summit Forum , which will be held in Wuhu, Anhui Province from July 29 to 30, will provide a window for policy docking.
It is understood that the conference will focus on the core issues such as the technical path of ultra-low emission transformation, the practice of carbon market compliance, the coordination of alternative fuels and carbon emissions, and the standards and cases of green factory construction. During the conference, the "2025 Cement Industry Alternative Fuel Calorific Value Replacement Rate Ranking List" and "2025 Cement Industry New Energy Installed Capacity Ranking List" will also be released, and the first AI model and digital exhibition hall of Conch Group's cement industry will be organized to present a complete technical map for the industry to cope with the "15th Five-Year Plan" green transformation.
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