Cement net comments: 15,000 km railway + 21,000 km highway! Cement Industry Facing Huge Transportation Infrastructure Plans, don't Be Happy Too Early!

The National Development and Reform Commission recently unveiled a road map for the construction of a comprehensive transportation system during the 15th Five-Year Plan period: about 15,000 kilometers of railways will be built, including about 10,000 kilometers of high-speed railways; about 21,000 kilometers of expressways will be built; about 2,500 kilometers of national high-grade waterways will be built, and more than 100 automatic wharf berths of 10,000 tons and above will be built; About 15 civil transport airports. The

figures are still spectacular, but as long as we open the "14th Five-Year Plan" account book, there is another taste behind the spectacular-for the cement industry, this is probably not a good news.

The chessboard is still the same chessboard, but the grid is small

. Put the two accounts together first. During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, the mileage of railways in operation nationwide increased from 146,000 km to 165,000 km, with an actual increase of about 19,000 km in five years, of which the mileage of high-speed rail increased from 38,000 km to 50,000 km, with an increase of about 12,000 km, and the mileage of expressways completed increased from 161,000 km to 199,400 km, with an increase of about 38,000 km in five years; The number of high-grade inland waterways increased from 16,100 km to 18,500 km, an increase of about 2,400 km, and the number of civil transport airports increased from 241 to 270, an increase of 29. These figures come from the State Council's "14th Five-Year Plan for the Development of Modern Comprehensive Transportation System" and the Ministry of Transport's "Statistical Bulletin on the Development of Transportation Industry in 2025", which are the achievements that have been landed.

Looking at the plan for the 15th Five-Year Plan, about 15,000 kilometers of new railways will be added, about 4,000 kilometers less than actual increase in the 14th Five-Year Plan period; about 10,000 kilometers of high-speed rail will be added, about 2,000 kilometers less; about 21,000 kilometers of expressways will be added, about 17,000 kilometers less than actual increase of 38,000 kilometers, shrinking by more than 40%; There are about 15 civil transport airports, which are directly cut in half; the only one that is basically equal is the national high-grade waterway, which is about 2,500 kilometers, roughly the same as the 2,400 kilometers in the previous five years, plus more than 100 10,000-ton berths and the new Three Gorges waterway.

The chessboard is still the same chessboard, but the grid is smaller. The overall contraction of railway, highway and airport lines is not a matter of the rhythm of a certain sector, but a signal that the overall transportation infrastructure has shifted from "scale expansion" to "making up for shortcomings, improving quality and efficiency". As far as cement is concerned, every section of mileage of shrinkage is a solid demand for disappearance. The slowdown of

infrastructure hit the downturn of real estate, and the two engines of cement demand stalled

at the same time. In the past two decades, cement demand has been driven by "infrastructure + real estate". After the deep adjustment of real estate, infrastructure has become the only load-bearing wheel, which is also the reason why the industry places its hopes on major projects. But now the only load-bearing wheel is also deflating: the mileage of new highways has been cut by 40%, the railway has been cut by 4000 kilometers, and the airport has been cut in half.

Of course, there are also bright spots in the chess game: speeding up the construction of the coal transportation system in Xinjiang, striving to increase the freight volume by 220 million tons in the "15th Five-Year Plan"; the high-standard high-speed railway along the Yangtze River will be completed in an all-round way, and the coastal high-speed railway will be accelerated; the port groups in the Yangtze River Delta and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area will continue to expand. But these are structural points, which can not support the total amount-dotted bright spots can not fill the gap left by the contraction of the market.

In the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, about 57,000 kilometers of new railways and expressways were added; in the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, the two projects totaled about 36,000 kilometers, a full 21,000 kilometers less. The intensity of transportation infrastructure goes down step by step, the deep adjustment of real estate has not yet bottomed out, the two engines of cement demand stall at the same time, and the probability of the "15th Five-Year Plan" demand chassis is lower than that of the "14th Five-Year Plan", not higher .

For cement companies, this means two things. First, don't count on the traffic chess game to bring a general rise in the market-there are still structural opportunities along the Yangtze River, coastal areas, border corridors and port groups, but that is a share competition, not an incremental competition. Enterprises that fall on the edge of the chessboard may not even be able to drink soup. Second, the speed of industry clearing must be faster than speed of demand contraction, otherwise the shrinking cake with huge capacity, the price war will only be more fierce.

The numbers don't lie: the chessboard is still there, but the grid is smaller. As far

as the cement industry is concerned, it can not wait for the next "four trillion", nor can it wait for the reverse expansion of traffic mileage-infrastructure can hold up for a while, but not for a lifetime. Making yourself stronger and thinner is the only sure way out.