September, the sound of "anti-involution" in the cement industry has been rising and falling. On September 1, Liaoning took the lead in issuing the proposal, on September 3, Jilin, Heilongjiang and Gansu followed up, on September 6, Inner Mongolia Cement Association issued the proposal, and on September 7, Shandong Cement Industry Association signed the proposal with the clinker enterprises of the whole province. In a short week, six provincial-level cement associations in the three northeastern provinces, Gansu, Inner Mongolia, and Shandong have intensively voiced their voices, pointing to one core: resisting low-price dumping and getting out of the quagmire of the price war.
This round of intensive initiatives is actually a self-help move for the industry to fall into a deep loss dilemma. In the first half of this year, the total cement output in China was 736 million tons, down 8% from the same period last year, an increase of 3.7 percentage points over the same period last year, and the output dropped to the lowest level in more than a decade. In terms of price, the national cement price index has been declining almost all the way since the beginning of the year, and the ex-factory price of some cement in Northeast China, Inner Mongolia and other regions once fell below 200 yuan/ton.
At the same time, the price of thermal coal rose to 902 yuan/ton, a new high in the past two years. With the double squeeze of "falling prices and rising costs", the whole cement industry has fallen into a loss predicament, and the profitability of the industry has fallen to the bottom.
At present, it is the peak season of traditional construction in September, and "Golden Nine Silver Ten" is the key window for cement enterprises to return blood in the year. However, the demand for price increase in the peak season has been difficult to land because of weak demand and excess supply.
In this context, local associations have issued "anti-involution" initiatives, the essence of which is that the industry tries to curb low-price dumping and repair the price order destroyed by vicious bidding through self-discipline and coordination, so as to create conditions for stabilizing prices and stopping losses in the peak season. Looking
closely at the local initiatives, the core can be classified into four points: First, resist dumping at low prices, strictly abide by the Price Law, the Anti-Unfair Competition Law and the Anti-monopoly Law, and put an end to sales below cost price; The second is to establish a unified cost accounting model, and Shandong explicitly requires that the selling price of all products should not be lower than average full cost of the whole province. ; Fourth, we should strictly stagger peak production, control production capacity, and strictly prohibit production beyond the record capacity. The shift
from "price war" to "cost war" is the most prominent feature of this round of initiatives. Shandong requires accounting and regular publication of the average cash cost, production cost and full cost of the whole province, and lists "sales below full cost" as the red line; Inner Mongolia proposes to establish sub-regional cost reference guidelines to warn and prompt sales behavior that is obviously lower than reasonable cost. The quantifiable cost scale replaces the vague slogan of self-discipline in the past and points to the root of low-price competition.
AI Shengtu is only for reference
, but the landing of industry self-discipline still depends on a more rigid and enforceable restraint mechanism. The structural contradiction of overcapacity and demand contraction in the cement industry has not been fundamentally alleviated, and enterprises inevitably have their own considerations under the pressure of competition. The previous peak staggering production and the attempt to recover prices have achieved different results. Whether the initiative can really be effective, in addition to the self-discipline of enterprises, it is also inseparable from the follow-up of rigid constraints and supervision mechanisms.
But the significance of the signal can not be ignored. From the first mention of "preventing vicious competition of involution" at the meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee in 2024 to this year, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has made it clear that it will rely on multiple means such as capacity early warning, capacity replacement and enterprise interviews to regulate the order of the industry, and then to the intensive response of local associations, "anti-involution" is transforming from policy requirements to collective action of the industry.
For the loss-making cement enterprises, this September is not only the window of the traditional peak season, but also a test of industry self-discipline. There is no winner in the price war, only by keeping the bottom line of cost and quality, can cement industry really get out of the predicament of "selling more and losing more".
浙公网安备33010802003254号