In 2025, the national cement output was 1.693 billion tons, down 6.9% from the same period last year, and the cement price in the core regions such as the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta once fell below 200 yuan/ton. There is no doubt that we are experiencing a cold winter sweeping the whole cement industry.
As demand continues to decline, off-peak production, once an industry stabilizer, is facing more and more doubts. There is an increasingly fierce debate within the industry about whether off-peak production should be abolished and the market should eliminate excess capacity through full competition. Decreasing
efficiency: practical challenges
faced by peak-shifting production In 2025, in the context of continuous decline in demand, the cost of kiln shutdown will continue to increase, and the effect of peak-shifting production will be greatly reduced, resulting in more and more difficulties in implementation. Many provincial peak-staggering production meetings have been held, but the implementation is not satisfactory, and there are always small moves of enterprises.
Its root lies in the limitations of peak staggering production in the face of extreme overcapacity. The use of off-peak production to stabilize the market situation needs to be based on relatively good and stable cement demand.
Once the demand for cement falls sharply, the effect of peak staggering production will be greatly reduced. At present, the domestic cement clinker production capacity exceeds 1.7 billion tons, and the cement production capacity is nearly 3.5 billion tons. If we do not take effective measures to reduce production capacity, the domestic demand for cement will be reduced to about 1 billion tons in the next few years, and the utilization rate of clinker production capacity will be as low as 35-40%, and the living environment of the industry will be worse. Struggle for
survival: the confrontation
of two opposing views In the face of industry difficulties, there are two distinct opposing views on off-peak production in the industry.
One view is that off-peak production should be abolished and the market should play a role. This view holds that the current industry overcapacity has been extremely serious, and market competition is inevitable. When the demand continues to decline and everyone shouts "live" in unison, it is unrealistic to call for off-peak production and maintain a unified pace. We should make use of market competition to eliminate enterprises with weak competitiveness and return the cement industry to a relatively balanced supply and demand. Another
view advocates insisting on and strengthening peak staggering production. This view holds that under the current situation, peak staggering production is still the most effective way to solve the contradiction between supply and demand in the short term. Through off-peak production, maintain the relatively stable situation of the industry, slowly promote capacity removal, and then achieve the "soft landing" of the industry situation in the downward cycle of demand.
Ultimate fate: Off-peak production will inevitably withdraw from the historical stage
. Faced with the structural contradiction between shrinking demand and serious overcapacity, the limitations of off-peak production as a short-term regulatory tool have become increasingly prominent. It can be seen as an "analgesic" rather than a "radical cure" under the background of overcapacity, and its historical mission will come to an end under the inevitable trend of deep adjustment of the industry.
At present, the core value of peak staggering production is to provide a key "soft landing" buffer period for industry transformation. By maintaining the basic order, it avoids the market falling into a vicious circle in the drastic liquidation, and gains time for the landing of fundamental measures such as capacity removal, restructuring and integration.
However, in the past ten years, the cement industry has created a brilliant period under the support of off-peak production, but the capacity has not been achieved, and the overcapacity of the industry has become more and more serious, which also verifies the failure of off-peak production as an auxiliary means of capacity removal. The gradual withdrawal
of off-peak production is precisely a sign of the maturity of the industry. It means that China's cement industry will completely bid farewell to the old stage of relying on artificial means to control the supply and demand situation, and turn to rely on the market mechanism and the endogenous power of high-quality development to move towards a healthier and sustainable new future.
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