Hubei is the core province of phosphorus chemical industry in China, with a high concentration of phosphate fertilizer and fine phosphorus chemical industry, which continuously produces tens of millions of tons of phosphogypsum solid waste all the year round, with a huge amount of historical storage, and the pressure of environmental protection management and control of solid waste storage yard is prominent. The resource consumption of phosphogypsum has become the core pain point restricting the sustainable development of regional phosphorus chemical industry. At the same time, the cement industry in Hubei has experienced many rounds of capacity reduction and peak staggering production regulation. " In the first half of the year, the global supply gap of sulfur resources continued to enlarge. The price of sulfur was pushed up by geopolitical conflicts, the reduction of overseas mine production and the shortage of shipping, and the transaction price of solid sulfur in the international market has exceeded the 10000 of RMB/ton, with an increase of more than 160% in the year and a maximum increase of more than 30% in a single week. The industry has officially entered the sulfur cycle of RMB 10,000. The high price of sulfur has directly led to a sharp rise in the cost of domestic sulfuric acid production, and the traditional purchased sulfur-based sulfuric acid enterprises have generally fallen into cost inversion, large-scale production reduction and shutdown, resulting in a sharp increase in the supply cost of raw materials for phosphate fertilizer and fine chemical industry chains in the province.
Under the background of this industry, the advantages of the integrated production line of phosphogypsum co-production of sulfuric acid and cement clinker along the Yangtze River are highlighted. The project relies on phosphogypsum solid waste to produce sulfuric acid, realizes the internal closed-loop of sulfur resources, and exports cement clinker with the help of the Yangtze River Golden Waterway, which has multiple strategic values of solid waste treatment, industrial chain supply guarantee, capacity dredging, cost reduction and efficiency enhancement. In combination with the national differential support policy for cement production capacity replacement, Hubei Province has the operating space to coordinate the allocation of clinker production capacity indicators in the whole province. It is suggested that special incentive policies should be introduced at the provincial level to guide the replacement of low-efficiency clinker production capacity indicators in western and northern Hubei to Yichang, Jingzhou, Jingmen, Huanggang and other phosphorus chemical industry agglomeration areas along the Yangtze River, so as to optimize the spatial layout of the cement industry in the whole province. Based on Huaxin and Gezhouba, two local leading cement producers, this paper sets up standardized investment and profit calculation parameters, and makes a comprehensive analysis from six dimensions: process technology, capacity replacement policy, replacement income of leading enterprises, impact of Yangtze River water transport export market, comprehensive value of projects, and urgency of industry construction.
First, the technology of phosphogypsum cement production line is mature iteratively, and the clinker quality can be circulated
across regions. The process of phosphogypsum calcination and co-production of sulfuric acid cement has been improved by many rounds of localization, and the long-term stable operation of several demonstration lines in Hubei Province has been verified, which thoroughly solves the shortcomings of high energy consumption, fluctuation of clinker quality and low sulfur recovery rate in the early process. It has become the most mature closed-loop process of solid waste co-production in domestic industrial application.
At present, a new generation of low-temperature suspension calcination co-production process is widely used in new projects in the province. Aiming at the difficulties of high moisture content of phosphogypsum, large fluctuation of impurities and easy skinning and blocking in the kiln, a complete set of pretreatment system is configured. After four pre-processes of drying, screening, homogenization and quenching and tempering, Phosphogypsum can stably replace more than 70% of limestone as raw calcareous raw material; the whole process has automatic temperature control and precise proportioning control, the thermal efficiency of the kiln system is significantly improved, the comprehensive recovery rate of sulfur resources can reach more than 98%, and the continuous, stable and full-load production can be realized throughout the year.
At the level of cement clinker quality, the physical and chemical indexes of co-production clinker fully conform to the national standard of general Portland cement clinker, and have the national cross-regional circulation conditions: First, the fluctuation range of key indexes such as free calcium oxide, loss on ignition and stability is very small, and the initial and final setting time meets the construction needs of various projects; Secondly, the mineral phase of clinker is optimized after the high-temperature decomposition of phosphogypsum, the early strength is significantly improved, the strength is steadily increased in the middle and late stages, and the impermeability and durability are superior to those of conventional limestone clinker; thirdly, the high-temperature calcination realizes the harmless digestion of heavy metals and soluble salts in phosphogypsum, the product is safe and compliant, and can be widely used in all types of engineering projects such as housing construction, municipal roads, water conservancy, bridges, etc.
On the whole, phosphogypsum co-production clinker is not a low-end solid waste blending building material, but a standardized commodity clinker with stable quality and market competitiveness, which lays a quality foundation for relying on the Yangtze River waterway to export to the Yangtze River Delta and the southeast coastal market.
2. The policy of capacity replacement is clear, and it is suggested that Hubei should introduce policies to guide inland capacity indicators to concentrate
on phosphorus chemical industry bases along the Yangtze River. New co-production clinker projects with phosphogypsum consumption accounting for more than 70% can be implemented by provincial industry and information departments to co-ordinate the production capacity indicators of the whole province and implement equivalent replacement within the province on the premise that the total production capacity base of clinker approved by the province in 2020 does not increase. No need to follow ordinary new cement projects 1.
(I) Rigid constraint rules
for capacity replacement 1. No replacement exemption: all new phosphogypsum co-production clinker production lines must fully implement the clinker capacity replacement indicators, and there is no special exemption;
2. Closed-loop management within the province: replacement indicators can only be taken from compliance clinker production lines that have been shut down, eliminated or permanently withdrawn in Hubei Province, and production capacity indicators from other provinces are prohibited from being transferred to the province for use;
3.
At the present stage, the structural contradiction of the spatial layout of Hubei cement industry is prominent: a large number of double-line new dry process clinker bases are distributed in the northwest and inland of Hubei, the local infrastructure demand has peaked, the transportation radius is limited, the perennial deep price war, the utilization rate of production capacity is less than 65%, and the depreciation of equipment continues to erode the profits of enterprises; However, the phosphogypsum output of the Phosphate Chemical Industry Park along the Yangtze River is concentrated, which has the inherent advantages of the Yangtze River water transport export, but lacks the compliance clinker production capacity indicators, which makes it difficult to achieve large-scale co-production projects, and the gap of massive phosphogypsum solid waste consumption in the region can not be filled for a long time.
(2) The supporting and guiding policies of Hubei Province are suggested
to rely on the provincial capacity co-ordination authority granted by the state, and to introduce special support policies at the provincial level to open up the transfer channels from the inland non-riverside clinker capacity indicators to the riverside phosphorus chemical base. The core measures are divided into four categories:
1.2.3.4
.
Through the overall allocation of provincial policies, it can not only keep the bottom line of industry control that the total production capacity of clinker in the province is not increased, It can also concentrate the clinker production capacity indicators scattered inland and depreciated inefficiently for a long time to the areas along the Yangtze River with the advantages of solid waste resources and water transport export, so as to realize the two-way optimization of eliminating backward inland production capacity and building high-end green recycling projects along the Yangtze River.
III. Huaxin, Complete Benefit Calculation
of Gezhouba Inland Double-line Base Replacing Half of Its Production Capacity to Share in the Co-production Project along the Yangtze River
(I) Unified calculation of basic parameters
1. Enterprise shareholding mode: Huaxin and Gezhouba inland double-line clinker bases sell 50% of the clinker production capacity index, with an asset appraisal price of 150 million yuan, and invest in the project capital in the form of assets;
2. Total investment of a single set of phosphogypsum co-production line: 1.2 billion yuan;
3. Total capital of the project: 300 million yuan, and the remaining 900 million yuan of construction funds will be provided by medium and long-term bank loans;
4. Equity structure of the project: the cement leader invested with the production capacity index of 150 million yuan, holding 50% equity of the project capital; the local phosphorus chemical enterprise invested with phosphogypsum resources, factory land and wharf supporting facilities at a price of 150 million yuan, holding the remaining 50% equity;
5. Sulfuric acid production capacity: a single co-production line produces 1.2 million tons of sulfuric acid annually;
6. Profit standard of sulfuric acid: the unit production cost is 400 yuan/ton, the average market price is 2000 yuan/ton, and the net profit after tax per ton of sulfuric acid is 1000 yuan (distributable profit after deduction of full cost and full tax);
7. Comparison benchmark of inland production capacity income: the equivalent clinker assets of 150 million yuan are retained in the inland traditional clinker production line, with an annualized return on equity of 6%;
8.
(2) The annual after-tax distributable net profit of the sulfuric acid segment is calculated
to produce 1.2 million tons of sulfuric acid per line. The net profit after tax per ton is 1000 yuan:
the annual net profit after tax of sulfuric acid = 1.2 million tons × 1000 yuan/ton = 1200 million yuan (1.2 billion yuan)
, which is the total distributable net profit after deducting all operating costs, financial expenses, taxes and various retentions. It is the core stable profit source of the project.
(III) Calculation
of return on equity of the project and annual equity profit of leading enterprises 1. Total capital of the project: 300 million yuan;
2. Return on equity (ROE) of the corresponding project of sulfuric acid business only = annual net profit after tax ÷ project capital = 120000 ÷ 30000 = 400% Note: 400% ROE is only contributed by sulfuric acid business alone, without adding incremental income from export of cement clinker and various policy subsidies. The actual comprehensive return on equity of the project is higher;
3.Huaxin and Gezhouba hold 50% of the shares, and only the sulfuric acid plate can obtain annual equity net profit = 120000 × 50% = 600 million yuan (600 million yuan/year);
4. The annual income comparison of the inland clinker production line with the same assets of 150 million yuan: 150 million yuan × 6% = 9 million yuan/year;
5.
(4) Five core values
of leading enterprises' replacement of shares 1. Enterprises only sell half of the stock of clinker production capacity indicators, pricing 1. At the same time, provincial cross-regional replacement of financial rewards and subsidies, solid waste recycling tax relief can be superimposed to further increase the equity net assets of enterprises; The project along the Yangtze River relies on the Yangtze River water transport to export clinker, and there is no problem of inland local inventory backlog and low-price dumping, and the ability to maintain and increase the value of assets far exceeds the inland traditional clinker production line.
2. Combined with the double incremental income of export premium of green clinker along the Yangtze River and special subsidies for solid waste consumption, the enterprise's equity income has a strong ability to resist the cycle, and completely get rid of the operational risk of profit fluctuation of single cement business.
3. After the transfer of half of the production capacity index to the export project along the Yangtze River, the remaining 50% of the clinker production capacity of the inland base was reduced, the market competition pressure in the province eased, the regional cement price stabilized and rebounded, and the profit of the retained clinker production capacity was restored synchronously; All the clinker produced by the projects along the Yangtze River is sold to the lower reaches of the Yangtze River, the Yangtze River Delta and the southeast coastal markets, and does not participate in the local market competition in Hubei, thus forming a differentiated industrial division of labor in which "inland clinker guarantees local infrastructure demand and green clinker along the Yangtze River is exclusively supplied to the coastal markets outside the province"; The overall clinker export scale of the Group has been greatly increased, which reduces the dependence on the weak market in the province and opens up the incremental space for the circulation of building materials throughout the country.
4. At the same time, improve the layout of green low-carbon production capacity of enterprise groups, green building materials qualification can be given priority to participate in the provincial major infrastructure, municipal engineering low-carbon building materials procurement bidding; In contrast to the inland traditional cement kilns, the cost of mine operation and maintenance, ultra-low emission transformation, environmental protection online monitoring and operation and maintenance has increased year by year, and the pressure of long-term compliance operation has continued to expand. Capacity replacement and transformation projects along the Yangtze River can significantly reduce long-term environmental protection investment.
5. Sulfuric acid plate alone can bring 600 million yuan of distributable equity net profit every year, compared with the same assets left in the inland, the annual excess income is close to 600 million yuan. The design and operation period of the project is more than 20 years, and the distributable profit space will be further enlarged after the completion of depreciation and amortization of the equipment. The operation stability and long-term rate of return are significantly better than operation mode of the inland cement kiln, which is a round of large-scale equipment renewal in 5-8 years and perennial peak staggering and production reduction pressure.
4. Layout along the Yangtze River + export of water transport along the Yangtze River, reshaping the supply and demand pattern of cement in Hubei Province, greatly alleviating the sales pressure
in the province. Under the traditional inland cement business model, the production capacity of clinker in northern and western Hubei is surplus, and the growth rate of local infrastructure demand is slowing down. Enterprises are faced with problems such as high inventory, price involution, single export channel and high cost of long-distance highway transportation. Relying on Huaxin, Gezhouba and other leading inland double-line bases to replace half of the production capacity index of phosphogypsum co-production projects along the Yangtze River, and with the help of the Yangtze River Golden Waterway, the sales radius of Hubei clinker has been thoroughly broadened as the core buffer of regional supply and demand regulation in the whole province, which has formed four major changes in the market, namely, "total amount unchanged, structural optimization, internal pressure and external dredging, and national expansion".
First, equivalent replacement locks in the total supply of clinker in the province, without the impact of new production capacity. All projects along the Yangtze River use the equivalent replacement of clinker production capacity indicators permanently withdrawn from inland areas. The total clinker production capacity of the province is strictly locked in the national approved base in 2020, and will not increase the overall market supply, so as to maintain the achievements of capacity reduction in the cement industry for many years and avoid further aggravation of overcapacity in the province.
Secondly, clinker will be exported at low cost along the Yangtze River, and the inland excess supply will be diverted on a large scale to reduce the inventory pressure of the whole province. The plant area along the Yangtze River is equipped with a dedicated Yangtze River cargo terminal, and clinker and cement products are transported by inland water to the lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the southeast coastal markets in Jiangxi, Anhui, Jiangsu, Shanghai and Zhejiang. Compared with highway and railway transportation, the transportation cost per ton of the Yangtze River is lower, the transportation volume per ship is larger, and the long-distance export has strong price competitiveness. The clinker production capacity, which was originally overstocked in the inland and could only participate in the low-price competition in the province, was transferred to the Yangtze River through capacity replacement, and all of them were converted into export production capacity for the Yangtze River Delta and the southeast coast, which greatly reduced the total amount of cement clinker put into the local market in Hubei, and effectively alleviated the chaos of inventory accumulation and price trampling.
Third, we should repair the mismatch between supply and demand in the whole province and build a differentiated regional market division. Implementation of the new industrial division pattern: a small number of grinding stations and small clinker production capacity supporting local infrastructure will be reserved in the inland areas, and no new large-scale clinker production will be added; the phosphorus-gypsum co-production base along the Yangtze River will focus on the export of low-cost low-carbon green clinker, relying on the advantages of solid waste raw materials and water transportation costs to seize the rigid demand market of building materials in the east. The market competition within the province has changed from the global homogenization and low price to the dislocation development mode of inland protection and supply to other provinces along the Yangtze River, stabilizing the https://price.ccement.
of the whole province, and creating the export brand of low-carbon green clinker in Hubei. The project uses phosphogypsum industrial solid waste as the main calcareous raw material, and the carbon emission per unit clinker is far lower than that of traditional limestone clinker, which is in line with the policy standards of green building materials procurement and low-carbon construction in the Yangtze River Delta and southeast coastal areas, and can occupy the eastern high-end building materials circulation market steadily for a long time, and expand the incremental space of Hubei cement export nationwide.
To sum up, half of the production capacity indicators of leading inland double-line bases such as Huaxin and Gezhouba are transferred and replaced along the Yangtze River under the guidance of provincial policies, and the low-cost water transport export channels of the Yangtze River are superimposed. On the premise of not expanding the total clinker production capacity of the province, the sales pain points of inventory backlog and vicious competition in Hubei Cement Province are fundamentally resolved from the industrial spatial layout level. The comprehensive benefits of the project have been fully released under the sulfur market of
five or ten thousand yuan, and the construction urgency of the co-production project along the Yangtze River has reached its peak
. In 2026, the international sulfur price broke through the extreme market of 10,000 yuan/ton, the annual output of 1.2 million tons of sulfuric acid per line, the unit cost of sulfuric acid was 400 yuan/ton, the selling price was 2000 yuan/ton, and the after-tax net profit of 1000 yuan per ton was based on the super-strong profit base, with a total investment of 1.2 billion yuan, a capital of 300 million yuan and a cement leader of 1.
(I) Ecological and environmental protection benefits: Concentrate on the elimination of massive phosphogypsum along the Yangtze River to protect the ecological safety
of the Yangtze River Basin. The phosphorus chemical industry base along the Yangtze River is the core production area of phosphogypsum in the whole province, with a huge historical stock and an annual increase of 10 million tons of solid waste. The risks of land occupation, leachate leakage and water environment of the Yangtze River are prominent. Centralized landing of the million-ton phosphogypsum co-production cement project along the Yangtze River can absorb the stock and add new phosphogypsum on a large scale, realize the closed-loop disposal of solid waste harmlessly and resourcefully, greatly reduce the pressure of environmental protection supervision and control of "three phosphorus" in the Yangtze River, and help the ecological protection and restoration of the Yangtze River Economic Zone. At the same time, the project replaces more than 70% of limestone with solid waste, greatly reducing mountain mining and vegetation destruction, which is in line with the province's dual-carbon development goals.
(II) Industrial recycling benefits: Opening up the closed loop of phosphorus chemical industry and building materials along the Yangtze River, supplementing the short board
of independent guarantee of sulfur resources in the province, and building a complete industrial recycling chain along the Yangtze River: phosphate rock mining — phosphate fertilizer production — phosphogypsum solid waste — calcination of sulfuric acid + cement clinker. The high-purity industrial sulfuric acid produced by co-production can be directly supplied to local phosphate fertilizer and fine chemical enterprises nearby, completely getting rid of the dependence on high-priced purchased sulfur and making up for the shortage of self-sufficiency of sulfur resources in Hubei Province; the clinker produced is exported to the whole country by relying on the Yangtze River water transportation, realizing the coordinated development of the two pillar industries of phosphorus chemical industry and building materials along the Yangtze River, and greatly reducing the comprehensive transportation cost of trans-regional raw materials and finished products.
(III) Economic benefit: sulfuric acid is stable, high after-tax net profit is the base, and dual products hedge the industry cycle risk
. At present, traditional purchased sulfur-based sulfuric acid enterprises generally suffer from cost inversion, large-scale shutdown and production reduction; The unit cost of self-produced sulfuric acid of phosphogypsum co-production route is only 400 yuan/ton, the market price is 2000 yuan/ton, the after-tax net profit of 1000 yuan per ton has covered all operations, finance, taxes and various retentions, the annual after-tax distributable net profit of single-line sulfuric acid is 1.2 billion yuan, and the profit space is sufficient and stable. Combined with stable export income of cement clinker, tax incentives for solid waste recycling, provincial-level special awards and subsidies for cross-regional replacement, and green industry support funds, the comprehensive income and anti-cycle ability of the project far exceed that of a single cement production line and a single sulphur-burning acid production line. Under the market environment of sustained high-level operation of international sulfur, the co-production projects along the Yangtze River relying on inland replacement indicators have irreplaceable competitive advantages in terms of profit certainty and long-term growth.
(IV) Regional supply guarantee benefit: stabilize the market prices
of sulfuric acid and cement, the two basic industrial products in the whole province. At present, the domestic supply of sulfuric acid continues to be in short supply and the market price is out of control, which directly impacts the production of the whole industrial chain of phosphate fertilizer, agricultural materials, electroplating and fine chemicals. After the large-scale phosphogypsum co-production project along the Yangtze River is put into operation, it can increase the local supply of massive low-cost industrial sulfuric acid, stabilize the high price of sulfuric acid in the province, and ensure the stable commencement of the phosphorus chemical industry chain in Hubei; the export clinker will continue to supplement the supply of building materials in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the southeast coast, balance the supply and demand of cement in the eastern region, and realize the two-way supply of the two basic industrial products of chemical industry and building materials across regions.
6. Summary and industrial development prospects
From the perspective of technology, the new generation of phosphogypsum calcination co-production process is mature and stable, and the clinker quality can meet the national cross-regional circulation standards; From the perspective of policy dimension, the state has granted equal replacement authority to the phosphogypsum co-production project in Hubei Province, and special incentive policies can be introduced in the province to guide Huaxin, Gezhouba and other inland double-line clinker bases in Western and Northern Hubei to transfer half of their production capacity indicators, with a single 1.
In the future, the global sulfur resource shortage pattern may continue for a long time. Infrastructure, real estate and building materials in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River just need to be stable. With the policy guidance of the transfer and replacement of inland production capacity indicators along the Yangtze River in Hubei Province, the project of co-production of sulfuric acid and cement from phosphogypsum along the Yangtze River will usher in a large-scale landing window period. This kind of project can not only thoroughly solve the problem of solid waste treatment of phosphogypsum in Hubei Province and protect the ecological environment of the Yangtze River Basin, but also reconstruct the spatial layout of cement industry in the whole province, dredge excess clinker production capacity, stabilize the market prices of sulfuric acid and cement, and create hundreds of millions of yuan per year for local leaders such as Huaxin and Gezhouba with zero incremental cash investment. It is the core strategic grasp of Hubei Province to coordinate ecological protection, industrial transformation, smooth operation of the market, and increase the efficiency and income of enterprises, helping Hubei to accelerate its transformation from a large province of traditional phosphorus chemical industry and building materials industry to a strong province of circular economy industry.
Disclaimer
All analysis and opinions in this article only represent personal research opinions, and do not represent the position of any organization. The total investment, capital scale, production capacity index valuation, sulfuric acid production capacity, unit cost of sulfuric acid, sales price, net profit after tax per ton of sulfuric acid, return on equity, annual equity net profit, etc. Of the project are all calculated based on assumptions, and the export income of cement clinker and various special government subsidies are not superimposed. It is only used for reference and communication within the industry, and does not constitute any investment advice, project decision-making basis and industry operation guidance. All risks and economic consequences arising from the investment, operation and project construction decisions made by any market entity in accordance with the contents of this document shall be borne by itself.
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