Cement prices in more than ten provinces have been pushed up! Why is the average price of cement still at a ten-year low?

June, the domestic cement market has been "booming". From Hunan to Yunnan, from Jiangxi to Shaanxi, from Shanxi to Guangdong, more than ten provinces have intensively pushed up cement prices in half a month.

However, after half a month of tossing and turning, the average price of cement in the whole country is still at the lowest point in ten years-a rising voice, and the implementation is worrying.

The rising tide has spread over more than ten provinces

. Since June, the rising tide has covered almost half of the main cement producing areas.

Hunan Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan region took the lead, pushing up 30-50 yuan/ton; Yunnan Pu'er Tea and Xishuangbanna followed closely, with an increase of 50 yuan/ton in bags and 30 yuan/ton in bulk; Jiangxi is a province with two waves, Pingxiang, Yichun and Xinyu first pushed 40 yuan/ton on June 7, and Ganzhou followed up with 20 yuan/ton on June 15.

Qinghai Haixi raised 30 yuan/ton on June 3, Gansu Zhangye raised 20 yuan/ton on the same day, Ningxia Guyuan raised 10 yuan/ton on June 5, and Shaanxi Guanzhong pushed up 40 yuan/ton on June 16. Taiyuan, Yangquan and Xinzhou in Shanxi Province increased by 30-40 yuan/ton on June 17, Wuhan and Eastern Hubei by 30 yuan/ton on June 10, Northeast Chongqing by 30 yuan/ton on the same day, Hainan by 20 yuan/ton in bulk on June 5, and Pearl River Delta in Guangdong by 10 yuan/ton on June 17. There are three distinctive features of

this push tide.

First, the coverage is wide, more than ten provinces act almost at the same time, from South China to Northwest China, from coastal areas to inland areas, the rising voice is almost everywhere. Second, the strength differentiation is obvious-inland provinces push up 30-40 yuan/ton mostly, Yunnan bags are as high as 50 yuan/ton; while coastal areas are obviously cautious, Guangdong Pearl River Delta is only 10 yuan/ton, Hainan bulk is only 20 yuan/ton. Third, the rhythm is intensive, from June 1 to June 17, more than ten waves of pushing up in half a month, almost "collective action".

This rhythm of pushing up is not so much driven by market supply and demand, but more like the survival instinct of enterprises under the pressure of loss. In the

first quarter of this year, 19 cement listed companies had a total net loss of 1.629 billion yuan. Only Conch Cement (1.468 billion yuan), Huaxin Building Materials (630 million yuan), Tapai Group (147 million yuan), Shangfeng Cement (32 million yuan), Ningbo Fidelity (60 million yuan), Sichuan Shuangma (59 million yuan) has 6 companies, and the remaining 13 companies have suffered losses.

In such a severe profit dilemma, enterprises take the initiative to push up, which is essentially a kind of "tactical self-help"-not to reverse the market, but to pull the price out of the abyss.

Demand is insufficient, pushing the rising tide is doomed to be a "short-lived market"

, but no matter how firm the will to push up, it is no match for the iron law of fundamentals. Overcapacity and weak demand, the two mountains pressing on the cement industry, show no signs of loosening. Therefore, since June, the price of cement has been pushed up in a wide range, and the actual implementation has not increased, resulting in the national average price of cement has not rebounded, and continues to be at the lowest level in ten years. On the

production side, there are about 1300 clinker production lines in China , with a capacity utilization rate of only about 50% and less than 40% in some provinces. Such a serious overcapacity means that any push up will face the game dilemma of "grabbing share without following the rise": the enterprise that takes the lead in raising the price will give up the price advantage in an instant, and the competitors can reap the market share as long as they do not move; the enterprise that follows the rise will face the risk of customer loss. Whether the announcement can really be implemented depends on whether the major enterprises in the region implement it, and the current capacity pattern makes it almost impossible for this synergy to last-there are always enterprises that will choose to "fall" to maintain their share, and a push will be disintegrated by a fall.

The demand side is even less optimistic. In 2025, the national cement output will be 1.693 billion tons, with a year-on-year decline of 6.9%; from January to May 2026, the national cement output will be 591 million tons, with a year-on-year decline of 8.6%, and the decline in cement demand will continue to expand. Real estate investment continues to shrink, and infrastructure growth is difficult to fill the gap left by the ebb tide of real estate. In mid-March

this year, cement enterprises in many places also launched a push up, but after the price increase, they fell back rapidly, and eventually fell below the level before the rise. This short-lived trajectory of "pushing up-falling back-falling below" is the script that is most likely to repeat the current tide of pushing up. The reason why the ten-year bottom is difficult to break is not because enterprises do not work hard enough, but because the market fundamentals do not give the bottom a reason to go up.