According to the report "The Rise of Renewable Energy in the Gulf Region" released by the Norwegian Classification Society (DNV), 860 GW of solar photovoltaic installed capacity will be added in the Middle East and North Africa by 2040. According to
the report, by 2040, variable renewable energy generation in the Middle East and North Africa region will increase by 14 times , with solar power, which is the lowest cost and fastest to build, dominating. Solar energy development in the region has a unique geographical advantage: the peak of solar power generation is highly matched with the peak of electricity consumption in the day and season. This is mainly due to the huge demand for air conditioning and refrigeration, which not only reduces the dependence on battery energy storage peak shifting, but also reduces the risk of substantial power generation abandonment. According to
the report, the Middle East and North Africa region will have 76 GW of solar installed capacity in 2024, including 61 GW of large-scale ground photovoltaic power plants and 15 GW of distributed photovoltaic power plants, supplying 4% of the region's electricity. DNV expects solar capacity to double to 154 GW by the end of 2026 and 343 GW by 2029 , when solar will supply 19% of the region's electricity.
The report points out that the scale of large-scale ground photovoltaic power plant projects in the region is expanding. It is expected that by the end of this decade, 80% of the completed projects will have installed capacity of more than 1GW, compared with 20% a decade ago. In addition, more and more projects are combined with energy storage technology. DNV said that by 2044, 50% of large-scale solar projects in the region will be connected to energy storage systems, compared with 16% in 2024.
At present, the Middle East and North Africa region has 36 GWh of energy storage capacity, equivalent to 1.4% of the world's total capacity. DNV said that with the projected growth of renewable energy generation, energy storage capacity will also be increased to maintain the stability and flexibility of the grid. Forecasts show a 10-fold increase by 2030, a 100-fold increase by 2045, and 95 GWh by 2060, when its capacity will account for 12% of the world's total. Last year, co-located energy storage projects overtook pumped storage as the dominant energy storage technology in the region and are expected to account for 70% of total energy storage capacity this year. Compared
to the rest of the world, MENA has a relatively small share of the distributed solar market. In 2024, 19% of the total installed solar capacity in the region will be distributed generation projects, compared with a global average of 30%. DNV said that for the region to reach the global ratio, it may not be until 2035.
The report also points out that by 2040, the new demand for solar energy projects will initially come from the construction sector, especially in air conditioning refrigeration and desalination . Between 2040 and 2060, DNV predicts that 2.2 terawatts of new solar and wind capacity will be installed in the region. Demand growth will be driven by the popularity of electric vehicle, the expansion of artificial intelligence data centers and the production of green hydrogen . The report predicts that by 2060, 92% of electricity will come from non-fossil energy sources, compared with 14% in 2024. The Middle East and North Africa region has not yet reached the tipping point where "the growth rate of new clean electricity exceeds the growth rate of electricity demand", the
report said. "We expect this milestone to be passed after 2040, and only then will the real transformation begin."
DNV also noted that the region's relatively new and well-functioning power grid means that near-term renewable energy growth in the region is unlikely to be constrained by grid constraints that are prevalent in most other parts of the world. Transmission and distribution lines in the region have grown by 24% over the past decade and are expected to double over the next decade and grow by another 52% by 2034.
DNV predicts that from 2035, if the expansion and upgrading of the grid cannot match the capacity growth of renewable energy, the grid may become a bottleneck. "There are few grid bottlenecks in the MENA region, mainly because the expansion of renewable energy is still at a relatively early stage, but the region still faces supply chain delays due to the lack of indigenous capacity for key components, " the report said.
In recent years, as countries in the Middle East and North Africa are eager for energy transformation, they have accelerated the development of new energy with photovoltaic and wind power as the core, which has become a new engine for the future growth of the global solar energy market. The demand potential of photovoltaic installation is huge. With the forward-looking strategic layout,
Chinese photovoltaic enterprises have already locked this region in the core position of the next stage of development.
According to the incomplete statistics of digital new energy DataBM. Com, At present, more than ten Chinese photovoltaic enterprises, such as Jingke Energy, TCL Central , Jingao Technology, Trina Solar Energy , Xiexin Technology and Boda Xinneng, have successively laid out their production capacity.
On February 5, the 100000 tons polysilicon project of United Solar Energy Company
, founded by former Jingke Energy and Daquan Energy executives, was officially put into operation
in Oman. The "packaging" of photovoltaic supporting industries has also become an upsurge.
Chinese photovoltaic enterprises have completely laid out the main industrial chain of "silicon material-silicon wafer-battery-module ", as well as complete photovoltaic and energy storage industrial chains such as inverters, brackets, glass, frames and energy storage.
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