In recent days, the Middle East region has been shrouded in war again.
Iran announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the attack on the equipment of Qatar Energy Company. Due to the escalation of the war between the United States and Iraq, the global traditional energy supply is also in tension. Influenced by the situation in the Middle East, international oil prices soared by more than 12% in the Asian trading session on March 2,
according to CCTV Finance and Economics. Since then, the rise in international oil prices has narrowed in the US trading session.
As of March 2, light crude oil futures for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed at $71.23 a barrel, up 6.28%; London Brent crude for May delivery closed at $77.74 a barrel,
Meanwhile, the price of natural gas in Europe has soared due to the attack on Qatar Energy's production facilities. The main contract price of TTF natural gas in the Netherlands rose by more than 50% in March 2nd. By the end of the day, the Dutch TTF natural gas futures contract for April closed at 43.30 euros per megawatt hour, up 35.
It predicts that if the Strait of Hormuz is completely blocked for a month , the fair value of crude oil prices will rise by 10% -15% .
Recall that four years ago, in 2022, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine broke out.". Ukraine's energy infrastructure has been severely damaged, leaving millions of people facing prolonged power outages and water shortages in the summer heat. The vulnerability of the
traditional energy system has also made the Ukrainian authorities deeply aware of the importance of new energy distribution. In 2024, Ukraine decided to abolish tariffs and value-added tax on imported equipment for generators, wind and solar power generation, and powerful storage batteries.
Data show that in 2024, the Ukrainian Solar Energy Association estimates that the new installed capacity of photovoltaic in the country will be about 800-850MW; In 2025, the association expects the country's new installed capacity to be about 1.
In addition, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has also accelerated the pace of energy transformation in the European market.
Across Europe, gas prices soared to historic highs during the Russia-Ukraine conflict. For example, in August 2022, the spot price of TTF natural gas in the Netherlands exceeded 300 euros per megawatt hour. For example, in August 2022, the spot price of TTF natural gas in the Netherlands exceeded 300 euros per megawatt hour. The surge in
natural gas prices has also been transmitted to the electricity market, and European electricity prices have also soared. According to the quarterly report of EC DG Energy, the average benchmark electricity price in Europe in the third quarter of 2022 was 339 euros/MWh , up 222% year-on-year.
Affected by the high cost of energy and electricity, many European enterprises have experienced operational difficulties in recent years and have been forced to announce the suspension of production and closure.
In this context, accelerating the transformation of green energy has become one of the important tasks of European countries in recent years. Among them, solar energy has become the key choice of transformation energy in Europe by virtue of its short construction cycle and many application scenarios.
According to SolarPower Europe data, in 2022, the new installed capacity of photovoltaic in 27 EU countries is 41.4G W . Compared with 28.1 GW in 2021, it increased by 47% , compared with 18 in 2020.
In the next two years, the new installed capacity of photovoltaic in Europe will continue to grow at a high speed in 2023-2024. The newly installed capacity is 56 GW and 65 respectively.
Returning to this round of conflict in the Middle East, some insiders said that the above situation may not be repeated in the short term, but in the medium and long term, it will trigger a new round of energy pattern remodeling.
In recent years, the Middle East market has become an important hot market for China's photovoltaic layout. What impact will the outbreak of the Middle East war have on China's photovoltaic enterprises?
According to media reports, CMA CGM has formally implemented the Emergency Conflict Surcharge (ECS), which imposes charges ranging from $2000 to $4000 per container on cargo in the affected areas; Germany's Hapag-Lloyd (Hapag-Lloyd) charges a war risk surcharge of $1500/TEU (20-foot standard container) for ordinary containers in the Persian Gulf region.
At the same time, a number of international shipping companies announced the suspension of navigation services to the Middle East, some routes bypass the Cape of Good Hope in Africa.
However, at present, the Middle East region has not yet become China's photovoltaic ". As to whether it will affect the export of China's photovoltaic products to the European market, the author believes that the impact is limited. In addition to the Suez Canal route and the Cape of Good Hope route, there are also Arctic routes and China-Europe Express routes for
China's products to Europe.
In addition, there are special photovoltaic trains for Central and Eastern Europe in railway transportation. Whether
the conflict will trigger a new round of price increases for photovoltaic modules, many industry insiders hold a wait-and-see attitude, "the current policy and silver prices are the main factors affecting the price of photovoltaic modules." In the
medium and long term, the outbreak of the Middle East war will undoubtedly accelerate the pace of global green energy transformation. Some insiders said that this year may be the "golden year" for China's photovoltaic and energy storage enterprises to go to sea.
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