In 2025, the domestic cement industry will enter a period of deep adjustment: the output will fall below 1.7 billion tons, the utilization rate of clinker production capacity will be only 48%, the demand will drop by 6.9% year on year, the ex-factory price in the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta will fall to "1", the imbalance between supply and demand will lead to vicious competition, and the industry's profits will shrink dramatically.
Looking forward to 2026, the promotion of capacity compliance and the continuous decline in demand coexist, the effectiveness of regulation and control of peak staggering production is weakened, and the industry has entered the era of stock competition. Relying solely on the traditional cement industry has become unsustainable, and creating a steady second growth curve has become the key to enterprise breakthrough and industry ecological remodeling.
Extending the industrial chain is the basic path to resist the cycle. Cement enterprises can rely on the advantages of resources, logistics and channels to create an integrated model of "aggregate-cement-commercial concrete-prefabricated components". Through the synergy of the whole chain, we can hedge the decline of the main business profits and enhance the ability to resist risks.
Green and low-carbon transformation is the core engine of long-term growth. Relying on the advantages of co-disposal of cement kilns, solid waste, hazardous waste and sludge disposal can not only obtain disposal income, but also enjoy policy dividends. Promote low-carbon cement, increase the proportion of industrial solid waste, and reduce carbon emissions and production costs. Actively participate in carbon trading and develop CCER projects to transform environmental pressure into green competitiveness.
Overseas layout and cross-border innovation open up incremental space. Under the background of the peak of domestic demand, the demand for infrastructure in emerging markets such as Southeast Asia and Africa is strong, which provides opportunities for enterprises to go to sea. Through capacity cooperation, technology export, merger and acquisition integration, we can avoid domestic involution and achieve global development. At the same time, relying on existing resources to lay out high value-added areas such as green electricity and new materials, we will promote the transformation of enterprises from single cement producers to integrated green building materials service providers.
However, the most important thing is that in the face of fierce competition in the stock market, cement enterprises should base themselves on market-oriented survival of the fittest, forge competitiveness with cost control, technological innovation and compliance operation as the core, actively conform to the trend of compliance of production capacity, promote the orderly withdrawal of inefficient production capacity, and strive to achieve the goal of promoting the development of production capacity. Relying on policy guidance and market mechanism, we should optimize the supply structure of the industry and build a sustainable industrial ecology with our own comprehensive strength. At the same time, through the construction of intelligent factories and the upgrading of intelligent logistics, we can reduce costs and increase efficiency, replace the disorderly price war with differentiated and high-quality competition, and win the initiative in the stock game. In the
new era, how can cement enterprises build core competitiveness? How to improve quality and efficiency and achieve lean development with digital empowerment? China Cement Network will hold the " 15th China Cement Industry Summit and TOP100 Award Ceremony " in Hangzhou on April 9-10, and hold the " Cement Economy Fifty People Forum (C50) " at the same time. The Summit will build a platform for the docking of supply and demand and the collision of ideas, explore the path of green transformation and intelligent upgrading from the dimensions of macroeconomic insight, industrial chain synergy and technological innovation breakthroughs, plan a layout for the "15th Five-Year Plan" green development of the industry, and work together to create a new chapter of high-quality development!
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