Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration jointly issued the "Fifteenth Five-Year Plan for the Construction of a New Energy System", proposing to initially build a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient new energy system by 2030, and making it clear that the total investment scale of key energy projects and new formats during the "Fifteenth Five-Year Plan" period will exceed 20 trillion yuan.
For the cement industry, this plan is not only a road map for energy transformation, but also a considerable demand order table. Starting
from the demand side, the large-scale development of energy infrastructure will directly stimulate cement consumption and bring new growth space for the industry.
Cement is an irreplaceable raw material for infrastructure construction, especially for energy projects. A large number of concrete foundations, tower foundations, factory buildings, roads and transmission line foundations are needed for large-scale wind power and photovoltaic bases, offshore wind power, hydro-wind-solar integrated bases, trans-regional transmission channels, new power grids, pumped storage power stations and new energy storage facilities. According to the Plan, the proportion of wind power and solar power installed in 2030 will exceed 50% and become the main body of power installed, and the proportion of non-fossil energy generation will reach 50%. This means that in the next five years, new energy projects will enter the stage of "volume construction" from "horse race enclosure", and the demand for cement as the "chassis material" of new energy projects will be significantly enlarged.
Pictures from CCTV Finance and Economics
, especially power grid investment, will become an important stabilizer of cement demand. The Plan specifies that during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, China's new power grid investment is expected to exceed 5 trillion yuan, which will promote the transformation of distribution network to an efficient allocation platform for source, network, load and storage resources, and strive to have the capacity to carry 900 million kilowatts of distributed new energy access by 2030. Power grid projects include not only substations and transmission tower foundations, but also large-scale cable trenches, pipe galleries, communication base stations and other supporting facilities. The pulling effect of unit investment on cement is stable and sustained.
In the Plan, the deployment of energy storage and charging infrastructure is particularly specific: by 2030, the installed capacity of pumped storage will reach about 160 million kilowatts, the installed capacity of new energy storage will reach 300 million kilowatts, and the number of charging infrastructure will reach 40 million, achieving doubling development. Pumped storage power station is a typical high cement consumption project, which requires the construction of upper and lower reservoirs, water conveyance tunnels and underground powerhouse. Although the cement consumption of the new energy storage power station and charging pile network is not large, the number of projects is large and the distribution is wide, which plays a supporting role in the regional cement demand.
At the same time, the plan proposes to build a number of comprehensive energy stations, such as electricity, gas, heat and hydrogen, to promote the development of multi-energy integration and complementarity. Although the technical route of new energy infrastructure such as hydrogen storage and transportation facilities, hydrogenation stations and integrated energy stations is still evolving, the demand for cement in civil engineering is also clear, which opens up a new scenario for the cement industry beyond traditional energy engineering.
From a regional perspective, the Plan emphasizes the spatial, temporal and market synergy between energy development and energy use industries. Large-scale wind power photovoltaic bases are mainly distributed in the "three north" areas and desert, Gobi and desert areas, offshore wind power is concentrated in the eastern coast, and pumped storage and hydropower are concentrated in the southwest and central and eastern mountainous areas. These areas are not only the focus of energy construction, but also the concentration of cement consumption. For cement enterprises with the advantages of regional capacity layout and logistics radius, the regional centralized start-up of energy infrastructure means that the predictability of orders is enhanced.
Generally speaking, the 15th Five-Year Plan for the Construction of New Energy System has injected a "stabilizer" and "catalyst" into the cement industry from the demand side. The large-scale construction of energy infrastructure can not only hedge the pressure of declining traditional demand such as real estate, but also promote the cement industry to upgrade to new energy projects, green building materials and regional integrated services.
浙公网安备33010802003254号