China's Photovoltaic New Dilemma: High Wall and "Hungry Wolf"!

2026-08-03 18:52:12

"The current international situation is becoming more and more serious."

On July 28,

local time, the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) updated the Restricted Equipment List to include advanced robotic equipment and networked inverters produced abroad in the controlled list, prohibiting the import, promotion and sale of unauthorized products in the United States.

This news has aroused widespread concern in the photovoltaic industry. In response, an inverter listed company told the media that the ban mainly has an impact on future product sales, and the current certified products are not affected. At the same time, the company said that the ban would have a greater impact on the industry.

At the same time, since the beginning of this year, a number of overseas enterprises have intensively announced that their manufacturing projects have made new substantial progress, covering silicon materials, silicon wafers, batteries,

As Wang Bohua, former Secretary-General of China Photovoltaic Industry Association, said at the industry conference in late July: "The current international situation is becoming more and more serious."

Nowadays, Chinese photovoltaic enterprises are facing not only the policy challenges of trade barriers, but also the market competition under the accelerated expansion of overseas local enterprises. Significant changes have taken place in the "rules of the game" for Chinese photovoltaic enterprises to go to sea.

The "wall" is getting higher and higher

, from "three heads outside" to the first in the world, China's photovoltaic industry has gone through more than 20 years. Looking back, China's photovoltaic enterprises are facing not only technical difficulties, industry cycle fluctuations and other tests, but also trade barriers built by overseas countries.

Initially, Chinese photovoltaic enterprises were faced with " tariff sticks ", such as "301 tariff" and "201 tariff" in the United States. In this regard, Chinese photovoltaic enterprises adopt the " curve strategy " to enter the corresponding target market with third-party countries/regions as the "springboard".

But that strategy has largely failed. In recent years, many countries have launched anti-circumvention investigations on photovoltaic products in China. Among them, the United States not only launched anti-circumvention investigations in Cambodia, Laos, Malaysia, Thailand and other Southeast Asian countries, but also focused on South Korea, Ethiopia and other countries. (For details, please click: " At present, in addition to various nominal tariffs, Chinese photovoltaic enterprises have also become "targets" in terms of policy support and enterprise financing. Countries are trying to block it from the financial side, and the difficulty of avoiding it continues to increase.

It can be seen that the forms of international trade barriers are becoming more and more diverse, from the original single tariff measures to the multi-dimensional and systematic blockade of the whole link.

In addition, the trade barrier policies of various countries not only cover a wide range, but also accelerate the speed of policy introduction, and the iteration cycle is greatly shortened.

China's New PV Dilemma: High Wall and

On the one hand, the production capacity of overseas components is growing rapidly, and some regions even have excess capacity.

South Korea's leading polysilicon producer OCI said recently that it plans to increase its polysilicon production capacity from 35000 tons per year to 70000 tons per year by 2029. Wafer production capacity expanded from 2.7GW to 11.5GW (for details, please click: silicon materials doubled, silicon wafers increased by more than 325%! The photovoltaic company announced a substantial expansion of production! The company plans to start the second phase of the project by the end of this year.

On July 21, Sino-US Silicon Industry and United Renewable Energy announced that they would establish a joint venture company to build 1GW photovoltaic module production capacity in the United States, with a total investment of $40 million;

On July 6, Vikram Solar, an Indian photovoltaic manufacturer, announced the commissioning of its module plant in Ganga Kangdan, Tamil Nadu. At the same time, the company revealed that it plans to achieve integrated production of silicon ingots, wafers, batteries and modules in this plant in the next few years: it plans to achieve 9 GW of battery capacity in fiscal year 2027, add another 3 GW in fiscal year 2028, and add 12 GW of silicon ingot and wafer capacity in fiscal year 2029-2030.

According to the rough statistics of the Digital New Energy DataBM. Com, since this year, nearly 30 W of production capacity has been put into operation in the United States, about 8 GW in the European Union, about 10 GW in India, and 100000 tons of polysilicon in the Middle East.

Taking India as an example, as of the first half of this year, the cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaic in India is 162. The country's goal is to achieve nearly 280 GW photovoltaic installed capacity by 2030.

According to the March report of the Mercom India Research ", by the end of December 2025, India's cumulative module capacity was 210 GW and battery capacity was about 27 GW . As of March this year, the module capacity in India's ALMM list is 173.1GW, and the battery capacity is close to 26.

Obviously, there is a significant mismatch between the country's photovoltaic cell and module capacity, and the module capacity has fully covered the country's installed demand.

On the other hand, the penetration of overseas photovoltaic products into China's traditional overseas markets is increasing . It is reported that some Indian photovoltaic enterprises have entered the United States, Europe, Southeast Asia, the Middle East and so on, competing with Chinese photovoltaic enterprises in an all-round way. India's domestic manufacturers exported about 5G W PV modules and 192 MW PV cells in 2025, according to

the agency. 96.

Moreover, at the beginning of this year, the European Union negotiated a free trade agreement with India, reaching the largest agreement ever between the two sides. More than 99% of India's exports, worth about $75 billion, will receive preferential access to the EU, according to the Indian Ministry of Commerce. At the end of

July, India's Tata Power revealed that it was planning to export photovoltaic cells and modules to Europe. "Because Europe is trying to diversify its supply chain and reduce its dependence on Chinese manufacturers," the company's chief executive revealed.

" The competition of overseas manufacturing industry is no longer the story of" wolf coming "in the fable, but a very serious reality. "Wang Bohua reminded.".

At the same time, Wang Bohua also directly pointed out that the price advantage that Chinese photovoltaic enterprises have always been proud of has been weakening in recent years. "Now overseas (component) prices are also falling, with component prices in the United States down 15% from two years ago and in India down 14% from a year ago.". Although their prices are still 2.5 times and 1. "

 China's New PV Dilemma: High Wall and

Although the current situation of China's photovoltaic offshore is grim and challenging, the industry is still confident. There is no doubt that in the short term, although the growth rate of global PV installed capacity has indeed dropped, it is still in the overall growth trend in the https://www.databm.

of countries and regions around the world.

At the same time, in addition to the traditional European and American markets, the emergence of a large number of emerging markets has also brought new opportunities for China's photovoltaic industry and opened up new growth space.

At the same time, China's photovoltaic going to sea has always shown strong resilience, and the development path has continued to evolve from product export, capacity going to sea, technology going to sea, and capital going to sea. Nowadays, Chinese photovoltaic enterprises are upgrading to "ecological sea", and the overseas competition logic of enterprises is also leaping from simple product competitiveness to system solution service capability, building a new competitive advantage barrier.

However, it is worth noting that while continuing to deepen the overseas strategy, how to protect their own rights and interests and prevent the leakage of key technologies and mature experience is also a subject that Chinese photovoltaic enterprises need to pay attention to continuously.

All can be viewed after purchase
Correlation

"The current international situation is becoming more and more serious."

2026-08-03 18:52:12

Recently, the Shucheng County Urban Administration of Anhui Province issued a decision on administrative penalties, imposing a fine of 12238456 yuan on Anhui Changlong Cement Co., Ltd.