Recently, "meeting" has become a high-frequency hot word in the photovoltaic industry. Since July, many meetings have been held at the national level for the photovoltaic industry. One meeting after another conveys the determination of the country to help photovoltaic out of the bottom cycle.
At present, the official disclosure is that on July 30 and July 31, the Electronic Information Department of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the General Administration of Market Supervision held symposiums on the photovoltaic industry respectively. The latter is based on the guidance of industry price compliance.
At the same time, some media said that in mid-July, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the Development and Reform Commission also organized a closed-door meeting of polysilicon enterprises , and the participating enterprises agreed to reduce production capacity in equal proportion.
In addition, there are rumors that the photovoltaic industry has held relevant meetings in Beijing and Shanghai in the past two days. In the
capital market, on August 3, Daqo Energy and Tongwei shares touched the limit on the same day . The main contract of polysilicon futures also touched the limit on the same day. Affected
by the above meeting and future expectations, polysilicon companies have suspended their quotations , and the market as a whole has fallen into a wait-and-see situation. Chen Hansong, a senior researcher at Galaxy Futures Research Institute, said in an interview with the media that due to the impact of relevant meetings, polysilicon manufacturers began to calculate the specific cost, waiting for the future market policy to be further clarified after the price or more clear.
As the upstream raw material of photovoltaic products, polysilicon plays a vital role in regulating the photovoltaic industry. Since 2023, the average transaction price of polysilicon has dropped from nearly 250000 yuan per ton to about 30000 yuan per ton, a decline of more than 80%. Since the second half of
2024, the price of polysilicon has gradually "warmed up" due to the continuous impact of the "anti-involution" action. As of January 2026, the price of polysilicon has returned to the price range of 50,000-60,000 yuan per ton. Due to the increase in the price and cost of the upstream silicon materials, the prices of the downstream silicon wafers, batteries and
In the final analysis, this round of photovoltaic industry has been at the bottom of the cycle for a long time because of the serious mismatch between supply and demand. In
this regard, this year, the state started from both supply and demand, introduced various policies to stimulate market demand, at the same time, established new industry standards, cleared backward production capacity, in order to achieve a relative balance between supply and demand in the industry.
On the supply side, in addition to the polysilicon production capacity meeting and the price compliance guidance symposium mentioned above, it is reported that on August 5 and 6, the photovoltaic industry will hold separate high-level meetings on energy consumption and price standards in Beijing and Shanghai. The focus is on the silicon link . However, the news remains to be verified.
At the same time, China formally promulgated the "new national standard" for the photovoltaic industry in July, which will be implemented in January 2027.
Among them, compared with the official draft of "Energy Consumption Limit per Unit Product of Silicon Polycrystalline and Silicon Single Crystal" (hereinafter referred to as "New National Standard for Silicon Materials"), the stock bottom line (level 3 energy consumption standard) of trichlorosilane method and silane fluidized bed method has been raised: trichlorosilane method has been tightened from 6.4 kgce/kg to 6.3 kgce/kg. Silane Fluidized Bed Method Tightened from 5.0 kgce/kg to 4.
For the new national standard of silicon materials, the industry organization said that its role is not to force the mainstream production capacity to stop production in the short term. Instead, it makes it difficult for the production capacity that has been shut down, old equipment and long-term lack of economy to return to the market.
Even if enterprises want to resume production through technological transformation, they have to consider whether the funds on the account are sufficient. At the same time, it is necessary to weigh the economic benefits of investment in technological transformation. Since
the
second half of 2024, departments and associations at all levels of the industry have been promoting the work of "anti-involution" from multiple dimensions for two years. The photovoltaic industry initially had high expectations for the "anti-involution" action, but in the past two years, it is still in a state of "blood loss".
Now, in the face of various actions and policies, the industry will inevitably murmur: "Can we really usher in spring this time?"?
First of all, the competent state authorities have issued a number of policy documents to directly attack the crux of the photovoltaic industry, and strive to work together to resolve the problems of low market demand and excess supply.
Secondly, the supervision work of the competent departments in this round has a clear stand, firm attitude and unprecedented strength. At the industry price compliance guidance meeting on July 31, the General Administration of Market Supervision made it clear that the business entities that strongly reflect on the industry, seriously disrupt the market order, remind the interview and still do not rectify will be dealt with seriously in accordance with the law.
According to industry sources, there was a clear signal at the photovoltaic conference held in Shanghai on August 6 that enterprises that do not comply with market rules should be severely punished. All
this shows the determination to act at this time. Just like digital new energy DataBM.
From another point of view, the elimination competition of photovoltaic industry has entered a more cruel stage. Many enterprises that have stopped production may basically have no chance to resume production; enterprises that are still carrying hard at this stage, unless they still have capital and core technology reserves, it is difficult to go through this cycle. Rising
price atmosphere, alert to "bad elements"
can be sure that the signal of turning point in this industry cycle has been very clear, under the combined effect of multiple factors, the industry is trying to return to the track of rational, healthy and high-quality development.
At present, the expectation that the market will return to a rational level is also beginning to fill up. Upstream silicon material enterprises are waiting for the next step, and downstream components have taken the lead in releasing price signals. Under the combined influence of the above-mentioned price compliance guidance meeting and the expectation of the future market, the atmosphere of market price warming has begun to continue to ferment .
According to Digital New Energy DataBM. However, one head component company has tried to raise the quotation slightly for the whole series of products. Another 4 head manufacturers also have the intention to follow up the price increase .
Compared with the previous rounds of price increases in the industry, the underlying logic is highly convergent: the upstream raw material side takes the lead in raising the price of polysilicon, which drives the price of the whole photovoltaic industry chain to rise with the support of rising costs.
At present, downstream manufacturers have been eager to try.
However, while the market is gradually moving towards repair, we also need to be alert to all kinds of chaos derived from the process of price increase.
Some insiders reminded that if the follow-up silicon material prices continue to rise, it is not excluded that some downstream enterprises take the opportunity to raise prices on the grounds of substantial cost increases, while there is a "breach of contract" behavior.
Looking back on past cases, when the price of components rose sharply, some component manufacturers suspended or refused to implement the previously signed low-price contracts. If the customer wants to pick up the goods, he can only choose between accepting the price increase and waiting for a long time to reduce the price.
Nowadays, component-side enterprises are expected to start pushing up the price of components, but they also expect not to reproduce the discordant voice of "breach of contract" and "breach of contract".
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