Recently, a "small composition" once again detonated the photovoltaic plate.
It is reported that a number of photovoltaic leaders gathered in Chengdu in early April to hold a closed-door meeting. According to the so-called "minutes of meeting" circulated in the market, the core of the meeting was to set the bottom line for the price of polysilicon and promote a rapid rebound within a month; at the same time, to force production control, eliminate backward production capacity within a year, and promote the recovery of downstream prices and profit restoration.
Although a number of leading photovoltaic companies denied the authenticity of the news to the media on the same day, affected by the spread of "small composition", the main force of polysilicon futures rose in a straight line in the afternoon, and finally closed at the limit, and then rose sharply for seven consecutiv e trading days. Photovoltaic concept stocks rebounded on the same day, rising for several consecutive days.
Although the above news was finally refuted as "false news", the rapid spread of the news and the violent reaction of the market also reflect the extreme anxiety of the current photovoltaic industry-the photovoltaic market is too eager for a good news, even if it is only a "bubble".
On the other hand, the continuous poor destocking has led to a continuous increase in the accumulation pressure of polysilicon links. Data show that by the end of March, the inventory of domestic polysilicon industry was nearly 500 thousand tons, which has reached the highest level in history.
Affected by the continued downturn in terminal demand, Upstream and directly at the end of the Digital New Energy DataBM.
In terms of domestic demand, according to incomplete statistics of Digital New Energy DataBM. Com, from January to March 2026, The calibration scale of domestic PV module collection projects was 2.86 GW, 4.72 GW and 8.37 GW , respectively, down 64.6%, 84.28% and 70
% year on year . Since April 1, the export tax rebate has officially returned to zero, and the disappearance of the policy dividend has further reduced the export profit margin of enterprises. However, the domestic market demand is still unclear, and major component manufacturers have to reduce production to cope with it. According to the digital new energy DataBM,
it can be said that the current supply and demand situation of the photovoltaic industry has been extremely severe. Stagnant demand, high inventory, continuous involution of prices, the photovoltaic industry is like trapped in the Mobius ring, continuous involution of internal friction, unable to get out. Under the current situation of short-term saturation of
domestic market and fatigue of demand growth, most photovoltaic enterprises have been focusing on opening up overseas markets since 2025, especially in the Middle East and North Africa, which was originally the most highly expected incremental market for photovoltaic enterprises in recent years. It has the advantages of superior light resources and strong policy support, which is an important breakthrough for Chinese photovoltaic enterprises to alleviate the pressure of the domestic market.
Despite the changes in the tax rebate policy in 2026, enterprises are still trying to seize the last window period before the cancellation of the export tax rebate policy, increase the inclination of overseas shipments, and "grab exports" to lock in profits ahead of time. But the sudden outbreak of war in the Middle East at the end of February has disrupted this plan.
According to Digital New Energy DataBM.
Many enterprises originally planned to "grab exports" in March to send components overseas (Middle East, Europe and other regions) due to shipping delays. A large number of components have to be hoarded in factory warehouses or domestic bonded warehouses , which further aggravates the pressure of inventory and makes the industry's original breakthrough expectations completely frustrated.
Faced with the current predicament, how to break the vicious circle of "high inventory, weak demand, lack of orders" and find the way to break the situation has become the core issue to be solved urgently in the whole industry.
On the one hand, it is imperative to continue to promote production control and reduction, accelerate the clearance of backward production capacity, and first curb the vicious competition of "extreme price reduction to grab the market". According to Digital New Energy DataBM.Therefore, the primary task is to actively reach consensus, form self-discipline, stop dumping at low prices, and promote the gradual return of industry prices to a rational range.
On the other hand, finding a new growth curve is the key for enterprises to break through.
Many enterprises have made great efforts in technological innovation and product innovation, introducing differentiated high value-added products, such as fire-proof components, anti-glare components, AIDC components, etc., to accurately adapt to the needs of different scenarios and develop high-margin overseas markets. At the same time, many enterprises have taken advantage of their own advantages to extend the industrial chain, lay out optical storage integration, green power industrial park, computing power collaboration and other fields, and build a diversified development pattern.
In addition, it is noteworthy that on April 17, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology jointly held a symposium on the photovoltaic industry. However, unlike in the past, this symposium did not include the manufacturing enterprises of the photovoltaic industry chain, but convened the China Photovoltaic Industry Association and the six central power enterprises of Huaneng, Datang, Huadian, State Power Investment Corporation, State Energy Group and China Nuclear Power Corporation.
This move has clearly released a clear signal that the top management has discerned the crux of the current photovoltaic industry and intensified its efforts to promote it- not only the excess supply, but also the insufficient demand; the main driving force of the market is not the seller, but the buyer . It is far from enough to solve the current dilemma by relying solely on the supply side, that is, photovoltaic manufacturing enterprises to reduce production capacity, price self-discipline, product innovation and quality improvement.
Only by giving full play to the role of ballast stone of central enterprises, activating terminal demand, opening up both ends of supply and demand, conducting policy pressure, standardizing product procurement pricing rules, and curbing the two-way internal friction of "Party a's price reduction and Party B's dumping" from the source, can we truly promote the resolution of this dilemma.
It is undeniable that the photovoltaic industry is experiencing an unprecedented deep adjustment, but this pain is also the only way for the industry to get rid of blind expansion and achieve high-quality development.
For photovoltaic enterprises, only by abandoning the old thinking of "scale first" and "low price competition", sticking to rational competition, focusing on technological innovation and optimizing market layout, can they gain a firm foothold in the industry shuffle; For the whole industry, only by achieving a balance between supply and demand and building a healthy ecology can we break the current predicament and usher in a real recovery and prosperity.
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