Recently, the 15th Five-Year Plan for Urban Renewal was officially promulgated, which defined 23 key tasks and 10 quantitative indicators. Market institutions estimated that the investment scale of the whole planning cycle was as high as 15 trillion yuan.
At first glance, this is a "big gift package" for the infrastructure chain. But in the eyes of the cement industry, this plan is full of bitterness-compared with the actual report card of the last five years, every quantitative indicator related to cement in the "15th Five-Year Plan" urban renewal plan seems to be shrinking. Under the
grand narrative, the amount of work is shrinking
in an all-round way, and the figures promised by the plan are not small: 115000 old residential areas in cities and towns have been renovated, about 500000 dilapidated houses in cities and towns have been renewed, 1500 factories in old blocks have been renovated, and 4000 villages in cities have been renovated. Construction and renovation of 365000 kilometers of urban underground pipeline network and 128000 hectares of new and expanded sports venues.
But putting these figures into the "14th Five-Year Plan" frame of reference, the halo immediately faded-during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, 240000 old residential areas in cities and towns were renovated, and 1 million kilometers of urban underground pipeline network were built and renovated, benefi ting about 110 million residents. The number of new and old residential areas is less than half of the actual completion in the last five years, and the target of underground pipeline network construction and transformation is only a little more than one third of the completion in the 14th Five-Year Plan.
Underground pipeline network is precisely the most concentrated area of cement consumption, according to 400 to 600 tons of cement per kilometer, the corresponding potential demand for this item alone is about 150 million to 220 million tons-the premise is that the amount of work can really be realized. If the amount of work shrinks, the pulling power will naturally shrink.
Although it is not excluded that in the actual implementation process, the completion of various announced projects related to cement still has the possibility of exceeding the "14th Five-Year Plan", at least according to the current paper data, it may be less than "14th Five-Year Plan".
In addition, several bright indicators in the planning, such as 128000 hectares of sports venues and more than 95% of the digitization rate of housing information, are the key steps to promote the improvement of the living environment, reflecting the good original intention of the policy level to let the people live in a good house. But it is precisely the field with the lowest unit consumption of cement, or even almost no consumption of cement. The pipe network and residential area transformation that can really feed the cement kiln may shrink instead. This contrast makes the narrative of 15 trillion yuan more bitter in the eyes of the cement industry. The report card of the
"14th Five-Year Plan" is the most bitter footnote
of the "15th Five-Year Plan". What is more uncomfortable is that the "report card" of the last five years is itself an alarm bell. During
the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, 240000 old residential areas in cities and towns were renovated, and 1 million kilometers of urban underground pipeline network were constructed and renovated, benefiting about 110 million residents. But in the same period, cement production still dropped from about 2.4 billion tons to 1.7 billion tons, and the downward trend of demand has not been reversed by such a huge urban renewal project.
This shows that urban renewal is a "repair technique" in the stock era, which can not support the downward trend of cement demand. When real estate continues to seek the bottom and the growth of traditional infrastructure slows down, it is untenable to expect urban renewal to hedge against the collapse of demand. The urban renewal plan of the "15th Five-Year Plan" may not be as good as the "14th Five-Year Plan"-its driving force for cement demand may not be as good as the last five years.
Demand support is weakening, the contradiction between supply and demand will only aggravate
the demand side of the account more and more ugly, but the supply side is motionless. At present, the capacity utilization rate of cement industry is only about 48%, half of the kilns are idle, and the pattern of serious overcapacity has not been loosened. Even according to the most optimistic calculation,
urban renewal may bring about an average annual cement demand of about 300 million tons to the industry, accounting for only about 18% of the current output-emergency can be saved, life-saving can not be talked about. On the one hand, the lifting power of the demand side is weakening, on the other hand, the excess capacity of the supply side is not willing to withdraw, and the contradiction between supply and demand in the cement industry will only continue to intensify in the "15th Five-Year Plan", rather than ease. This is probably the deepest bitterness brought to the cement industry by the 15 trillion plan. The
15 trillion urban renewal plan is a beautiful but bitter gift for the cement industry-the bright figures can not cover the shrinkage of the project volume, let alone the downward trend. When demand is weakening and supply capacity remains unchanged, the way out for the industry is not in the planning documents, but in the actual action of capacity clearance.
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