In the past two days, a "small composition" has come out again in the photovoltaic circle, and a screenshot named "Chengdu Production Reduction Conference Content" has been circulated in the photovoltaic industry. The core idea is that the polysilicon industry should start large-scale production reduction, production control and accelerated inventory removal, of which in the fourth quarter of 2026 alone, the output reduction reached 500000 tons, equivalent to nearly 60% of the quarterly production capacity.
Screenshots show that the domestic silicon industry plans to carry out large-scale production reduction actions. The overall target is to reduce the total output to about 1-1.1 million tons in 2026 and remain unchanged in 2027. In the fourth quarter of 2026, the industry is expected to reduce its annual production capacity by 500000 tons. Including:
Tongwei , Yunnan and Sichuan, a total of 200 thousand tons of production capacity in early October to gradually stop production ; Leshan Xiexin 100 thousand tons of production capacity stopped production at the end of September; The production capacity of 100 thousand tons of Xinte Zhundong base was reduced by 50% ; The 40,000-ton production capacity of the Yasiganhe base was suspended in October ; the output of other single-base enterprises was reduced by 10% ‑ 20%.
Meanwhile, since October, polysilicon enterprises have started joint production reduction and technological transformation, and the overall output has been reduced to 84000 tons . The truth of the
rumors remains to be confirmed, but a cruel fact has long been in front of us: although the polysilicon industry has been rushing forward blindfolded for a long time, it has to face the reality today that demand continues to be weak and inventory continues to hit new highs. What polysilicon enterprises really need to solve first is the problem of continuous and serious oversupply. For a long time in the
past, the operating rate of the polysilicon industry has continued to decline. According to the data of
China Photovoltaic Industry Association , by the end of 2025, the total effective capacity of polysilicon industry is about 3.5 million tons. In the whole year, there were 16 enterprises in production, and the annual output of polysilicon was about 1.367 million tons, down 25.0% from the same period last year, with an average operating rate of 39.3% .
By the first half of 2026, the total output of 11 polysilicon enterprises in China was about 541,000 tons, down 9.3% from the same period last year, and the average operating rate of polysilicon enterprises had dropped to 33.8% .
On August 6, eight polysilicon enterprises signed a self-discipline proposal in Shanghai to eliminate the dumping of products below the cost price and promote the price to return to a reasonable level while promoting energy conservation, carbon reduction and capacity clearance.
However, in the following month, the price of silicon products in the industry jumped , but the transaction was few and nearly stagnant . According to the information of the Silicon Branch on September 2, the new contracts signed in the polysilicon market are followed up slowly, and the market circulation is less , "showing a state of price without market as a whole". However, under such circumstances, the industry is still accelerating production, and the industry inventory is also rising.
According to the data of Silicon Branch, by the end of July, the inventory of polysilicon industry was about 522,000 tons , but in August, silicon enterprises did not take measures to reduce production. Even the output did not decrease but increased - the monthly output increased by 13.1% , about 118900 tons, and the inventory increased by 13800 tons. More than that, the Silicon Branch predicted in its report that domestic polysilicon production would continue to grow to about 124000 tons in September, an increase of about 4.4% annually . The
polysilicon industry is trapped in the "prisoner's dilemma" out of control, and everyone realizes that overcapacity and excessive production are not only a waste of resources, but also meaningless, but no one dares to take the lead in stopping, which will inevitably lead to the continuous expansion of losses in the whole industry. The semi-annual report
of 2026 shows that the four major polysilicon listed companies continued to lose money in the first half of the year, with a total loss of over 9 billion yuan in the first half of the year. The total loss in two and a half years has exceeded 42 billion yuan, which does not include the loss amount that some enterprises have already started in the fourth quarter of 2023. The results in the third quarter of 2026 will probably not be very good.
Thus, it can be seen that the current silicon industry has to collectively reduce production, clear production capacity, and re-realize the balance between supply and demand, which is not only a business problem, but also a survival problem.
In addition, China's polysilicon enterprises urgently need to solve the problem of internal supply and demand balance, but also face the wolves in the overseas market.
According to the incomplete statistics of digital new energy DataBM. Com, there are 8 enterprises that have built and planned to build polysilicon manufacturing plants overseas, involving more than 500000 tons of production capacity (including semiconductor grade). In addition, it is rumored that Musk's company is also about to launch a 400 thousand ton polysilicon plant construction plan. That is to say, nearly 900000 tons of overseas production capacity is about to take shape. At that time, Chinese polysilicon enterprises will inevitably face overseas rivals to grab their global market share. To resist
foreign aggression, one must first pacify the interior. Now, while there is still time, Chinese polysilicon enterprises should wake up as soon as possible.
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