First, the price trend
of silicon materials last week, the average price of N-type polysilicon dense materials was 0.17 million yuan/ton 34973, down 2.85% from the previous year and 9.4% from the previous year; The average price of N-type granular silicon was 34,300 yuan/ton, which was flat on a month-on-month basis, down 4.72% from the same period last year. After a month of consolidation, the price of mainstream silicon materials re-entered the downward channel. During the week, the operating rate of polysilicon rebounded slightly, the inventory of enterprises was reduced, the registration of futures warehouse receipts increased, the overall inventory digestion pressure was greater, the market returned to the trading logic dominated by fundamentals, and the futures and spot prices weakened synchronously.
Figure 1: Price Trend
of N-type Polysilicon Compact Material Source: Digital New Energy DataBM. Com
Figure 2: Price Trend
of N-type Granular Silicon Source: Digital New Energy Dat ABM. Com
II, Demand and Price Outlook
Digital New Energy DataBM. Com data show that the TOPCon double-sided 182 photovoltaic module price index was 0.74 yuan/W last week, down 1.33% annually. The price index of TOPCon double-sided 210 PV modules was RMB0.75/W, down by 1.32% on a month-on-month basis and up by 8.7% on a year-on-year basis; the price index of TOPCon double-sided 210R PV modules was RMB0.75/W, down by 1.32% on a month-on-month basis and up by 10.29% on a year-on-year basis; The price index of HJT double-sided 210 photovoltaic modules was 0.74 yuan/W, down 1.33% from the previous month. During the week, the operating rate of cells and components was still relatively low, some enterprises competed for shipments, and component prices weakened across the board.
Table 1: Last Friday's Photovoltaic Module Price Index (CPMPI)
Source: Digital New Energy DataBM. Com
Figure 3: Trend
of Photovoltaic Module Price Index in the Past Month Source: Digital New Energy DataBM
Last week, the price of industrial silicon continued to fall. The average price of Si4210 industrial silicon was 9487 yuan/ton, down 4.73% from the previous month. With the arrival of the wet season, the number of furnaces in the industry rebounded, the pressure on the supply side increased, and the spot transaction price declined. In terms of
polysilicon, from the supply side, some large factories have made clear plans to resume production, and the capacity to resume production has yet to be determined; some production facilities in Xinjiang region continue to stop production, and the supply continues to shrink; Qinghai region has a strong desire to increase production, and Sichuan-Yunnan region has entered the wet season, and the output will rebound. The main producing areas have increased or decreased, and the overall output is expected to remain stable. On the demand side, the inventory of downstream battery enterprises rose slightly, the overall normal fluctuation, the inventory of silicon wafer and component enterprises maintained the trend of destocking, and the terminal demand showed signs of marginal improvement. In terms of price, the downstream silicon wafer enterprises suffered serious losses, the willingness to stock up on a large scale was not strong, the supply and demand of polysilicon increased at both ends, the fundamentals did not change much, and the inventory depletion was slow. It is expected that the price of polysilicon will remain weak and volatile next week (5.25-5.29).
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