From 2025 to 2026, the optimization and adjustment of the tone of the real estate policy has affected the development pattern of the upstream and downstream industrial chain. Focusing on the specific impact of policy changes on the real estate industry and the coping strategies of cement enterprises, China Cement Network invited Yang Kewei, deputy general manager of Kerui Research Center, to conduct an in-depth interpretation.
Yang Kewei said that in 2026, the real estate industry will still be in a period of bottoming and stabilization, and the Report on the Work of the Government of the "two sessions" pointed out that this year, "efforts should be made to stabilize the real estate market. Implement policies to control increment, destocking and optimize supply according to the city. The real estate industry was once again included in the "risk prevention" task plate. As a pillar industry of China's economy, the policy orientation of the real estate industry has always affected the market nerves. As the real estate industry has a long industrial chain and covers a wide range of areas, it occupies an important position in investment, consumption, finance, residents'assets and other fields. Preventing the spread of real estate risks has become the primary task of preventing and resolving risks in key areas.
In 2026, the idea of risk provention and control was further upgraded from dealing with the single risk of real estate enterprises in an emergency way to resolving the related risks of real estate in a cross-domain and systematic way, and clearly put forward the idea of "controlling the increment, destocking and optimizing the supply according to the city's policies", taking multi-channel inventory of commercial housing as the core of market stability; At the same time, the white list system of "guaranteed delivery" is normalized, and for the first time, it is proposed to promote the risk linkage between real estate and local government debt and local small and medium-sized financial institutions as a whole. Monetary policy is also dedicated to creating an exclusive financial environment for the rational financing of real estate.
In Yang Kewei's view, 2026 is the key year for the construction of "good house" from concept to practice, which not only promotes the construction of safe, comfortable, green and intelligent "good house" in an orderly manner. At the same time, it extends the improvement of housing quality to urban space, proposes to build innovative industrial communities and business communities, and promotes the fine integration of housing quality and intelligence of urban governance.
This change marks that the real estate industry has completely moved from the stage of scale expansion of "building houses" to the stage of quality improvement of "building quality human settlements and beautiful cities". It not only conforms to the change of market demand from "having a house" to "living in a good house", but also increases the supply of "good house", reduces ineffective supply and makes it marketable, thus reducing inventory. At the same time, the housing quality improvement project provides a specific landing path for the "good house" standard, and the improvement of the quality of property services complements the "last kilometer" of quality human settlements, while the construction of industrial and commercial communities realizes the extension of "housing quality" to "urban space quality", and the construction of industrial and commercial communities is the "quality of housing". Strengthen urban renewal, increase the supply of core plots for improving groups and supporting urban areas, and promote the integration of production and city and the upgrading of housing quality.
In 2026, based on the policy environment, market demand, financial pressure, land market differentiation and other factors, real estate enterprises will be more cautious and rational in investment, and a few enterprises are cautiously optimistic about the core cities and market segments. The investment strategy pays more attention to the safety of cash flow, giving priority to de-industrialization and repayment, and only taking the land with fast de-industrialization and guaranteed profit margin. Through diversified land acquisition, such as agent construction, urban renewal, cooperative development and other ways to reduce costs and risks. In terms of investment trends, first, the overall scale of land acquisition continues to shrink; second, state-owned enterprises and local urban investment have become the main force of land acquisition; third, it will focus on about 10 urban core plots.
Based on the above industry changes, the growth rate of development investment has slowed down this year, and the scale of land acquisition and new construction is still at a low level. The sales area of commercial housing will still decline by 5% -10%, the construction area of land investment will decline by 10% -15%, the new construction area of real estate enterprises will decline by 10% -15%, the peak of guaranteed delivery has passed, and the completed area is expected to decline by 10% -15%.
Yang Kewei pointed out that the downturn in the real estate industry, as the main demand for cement, will directly lead to a decrease in cement demand, a decrease in cement prices , a further reduction in corporate profit margins, an increase in overcapacity, and an acceleration of industry integration. Some enterprises may withdraw from the market through merger and reorganization.
Although the contraction of the scale and development speed of the real estate market has brought severe challenges to the cement industry, the potential in the fields of urban village reconstruction, urban renewal, affordable housing construction and infrastructure construction has provided new development space for the cement industry. The main strategies for
cement enterprises are as follows:
first, diversify the development of non-real estate areas and reduce the dependence on real estate; second, technological innovation and green production conform to the new development model of the real estate industry in the future. The real estate industry has higher requirements for green buildings and energy conservation and environmental protection, which promotes the cement industry to transform towards low-carbon and environmental protection; III. Optimize the layout of production capacity and focus on the core areas of new housing development in the future, such as first-tier and second-tier cities and core urban agglomerations, which have great potential to improve housing demand in urban renewal.
On April 9-10, China Cement Network will hold the 15th China Cement Industry Summit and TOP100 Award Ceremony in Hangzhou. At the same time, the " Cement Economy Fifty People Forum (C50) " was held. The Summit will build a platform for the docking of supply and demand and the collision of ideas, explore the path of green transformation and intelligent upgrading from the dimensions of macroeconomic insight, industrial chain synergy and technological innovation breakthroughs, plan a layout for the "15th Five-Year Plan" green development of the industry, and work together to create a new chapter of high-quality development! At that time, Yang Kewei, deputy general manager of Kerui Research Center, will be invited to attend the " 15th China Cement Industry Summit and TOP100 Award Ceremony " and make a keynote report on the theme of "Current Situation and Future Prospects of the Real Estate Industry"!
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