Recently, the National Bureau of Statistics released economic data for January-February 2026. Data show that from January to February, the national cement output was 178 million tons, the comparable caliber increased by 6.8% and the total caliber increased by 4.3%. Simply from the data point of view, the cement industry seems to have achieved a "good start" and a better growth in demand. However, is the real demand situation like this? From the point of view of
infrastructure supporting limited real estate
, or affected by the completion of 500 billion new policy-based financial instruments, the acceleration of the issuance of special bonds and the centralized start of some major projects in the opening year of the 15th Five-Year Plan, the broad infrastructure investment in January-February 2026 increased by 11.4% year on year. The growth rate was 12.9 percentage points faster than that of the whole year of 2025. In terms of sub-items, the public facilities management industry increased by 11.6%, while the road transport industry decreased by 0.6%. Although the railway transport industry has not been announced, according to the steady growth rate of railway fixed assets investment and the upward trend of the proportion of equipment investment with the promotion of the "double" and "two new" policies, it is expected that the investment in railway transport industry will be basically the same as the same period in 2025, and it is difficult to increase. Municipal, road and railway account for more than 80% of cement consumption in the field of infrastructure, while highway and railway investment account for slightly higher proportion of cement consumption than municipal, and it is expected that infrastructure will have limited support for cement demand.
Figure 1: Cumulative growth rate of investment in major infrastructure items (%)
Data source: Cement Big Data (https://data.ccement.com/)
From the perspective of real estate, real estate is still in the adjustment channel. From January to February, the sales area remained weak and the decline expanded, which restricted the performance of front-end investment. The area of new construction decreased by 23.1% on a year-on-year basis, which was 2.7 percentage points higher than that of the whole year in 2025; the completed investment amount was 961.2 billion yuan, which was 11.1% lower than that of the whole year in 2025. Although the decrease was narrowed, it was mainly affected by the fading of the high base disturbance factors in the same period, and the real investment was not clearly improved. The pressure of real estate stabilization is greater, which has caused a greater drag on the demand for cement.
Figure 2: Cumulative growth rate of real estate (%)
Data source: cement big data (https://data.ccement.com/)
"Rush work before the festival-shutdown during the Spring Festival-resumption of work after the festival" rhythm moves backward The Spring Festival
in 2026 is 19 days later than that in 2025, which leads to the rhythm of "rush work before the festival-shutdown during the Spring Festival-resumption of work after the festival", which technically pushes up the cement production data in January-February this year, especially in January. According to the big data of China Cement Network, the average delivery rate of cement in January this year is about 28%, which is 6 percentage points higher than that in the same period, indicating that the output in January is significantly higher than that in the same period, while the delivery rate in February is lower than that in last year, and the output is affected to a certain extent. Seasonal factors may be the main reason for the year-on-year increase in cement production.
Figure 3: Trend of shipment rate of cement enterprises (%)
Data source: Cement Big Data (https://data.ccement.com/)
From the perspective of cement price trend, from January to February this year, the national cement price index continued to fall. It fell below 100 points, reaching the lowest level in recent years. Despite the increase in peak staggering and the high cost of coal, the company's shipments were sluggish and the market pushed up the fatigue. This also reflects the fact that the pace of resumption of work after the festival is slow and the demand is weak.
Figure 4: National cement price trend (point)
Data source: cement big data (https://data.ccement.com/)
The pressure of production decline in March is greater, and the demand in the first quarter should be viewed calmly. Generally, the
cement industry will formally resume work after the Lantern Festival. Affected by the seasonal factors of late the Spring Festival, the Lantern Festival falls in March, resulting in the actual production time and the pace of resumption of work in March this year are insufficient and slower than same period in 2025. In addition, the support of infrastructure is not strong and the drag of real estate is obvious. Under the influence of dual factors, the decline of cement production in March may be deeper, and it is expected that the pressure of cement production decline in January-March will be greater, so we need to calmly look at the demand trend in the first quarter.
Figure 5: Cement production is expected to decline in the first quarter of 2026.
Data source: Cement Big Data (https://data.ccement.com/)
April 9-10. China Cement Network will hold the " 15th China Cement Industry Summit and TOP100 Award Ceremony " in Hangzhou, and the " Cement Economy Fifty People Forum (C50) " at the same time. The Summit will build a platform for the docking of supply and demand and the collision of ideas, explore the path of green transformation and intelligent upgrading from the dimensions of macroeconomic insight, industrial chain synergy and technological innovation breakthroughs, plan a layout for the "15th Five-Year Plan" green development of the industry, and work together to create a new chapter of high-quality development!
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