2024, the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China first proposed to strengthen industry self-discipline and prevent "involution" vicious competition. On July 1, 2025, the sixth meeting of the Central Committee on Finance and Economics put forward the idea of "governing the low-price and disorderly competition of enterprises in accordance with the law and regulations, guiding enterprises to improve product quality and promoting the orderly withdrawal of backward production capacity", and bringing "anti-involution" into the framework of the national unified market construction. In order to actively respond to the call of the state, this paper puts forward some suggestions on the "anti-involution" measures of the cement industry.
Suggestion 1: Firmly eliminate the clinker production line of 2500t/d and below and the mill of 3.2m and below. The first
reason is to implement environmental protection requirements. In January 2024, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment and other five departments jointly issued the Opinions on Promoting the Implementation of Ultra-low Emission in Cement Industry, which requires that the hourly average emission concentrations of waste particulate matter, sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides should not be higher than 10 mg/m ³, 35 mg/m ³ and 50 mg/m ³, respectively. By the end of 2025, we will strive to complete 50% of the transformation and complete the transformation in 2028. The production line of 2500t/d and below can not meet the needs of the construction of beautiful China (Table 1).
Table 1 Comparison of
energy consumption and emission of 2500t/d, 5000t/d and 10000t/d clinker kiln production lines Reason 2: promote Shandong experience. Since July 2021, the Shandong Provincial Government and the Office of Industry and Information Technology have issued four documents, namely, the Work Program for Eliminating Backward Production Capacity in the Cement Industry of Shandong Province, the Implementation Measures for the Replacement of Cement Grinding Capacity in Shandong Province, the Implementation Measures for the Replacement of Cement Grinding Capacity in Shandong Province, and the Notice on the Smooth and Orderly Development of the Cement Industry. By the end of 2024, Shandong will basically eliminate clinker production lines of 2500t/d and below and cement mills of 3.2 meters and below. From 2022 to 2024, Shandong cement prices fell by 28.6%, significantly lower than those in surrounding provinces such as East China, and 2.6 percentage points lower than those in the whole country. The third
reason is that the national clinker production capacity of 2500t/d and below accounts for 18.43%, the mill production capacity of 3.2m and below accounts for about 25%, and the cement industry has an excess capacity of 48%, so it is imperative to eliminate backward production capacity, improve resource utilization efficiency and energy saving and emission reduction level. The second
suggestion is to resolutely reduce the replacement, increase the replacement ratio of general cement clinker withdrawal capacity and construction capacity to 2:1, and implement total amount control in each province, strictly prohibit inter-provincial capacity replacement, and prevent the revival of zombie capacity. The first
reason is to promote Zhejiang experience. In May 2023, the Office of Industry and Information Technology of Zhejiang Province issued the Action Plan for High-quality Development and Carbon Peak of Cement Industry in Zhejiang Province (2022-2025) (hereinafter referred to as the Plan). The Plan requires that the replacement ratio between the production capacity of general cement clinker and the construction capacity be increased from 1.5: 1 to 2:1. Through the joint efforts of provinces, cities and counties, the integration and capacity replacement of 2500 t/d and below cement clinker production lines in the province will be promoted annually. By the end of 2025, the total output of cement will be controlled below 120 million tons, and the clinker production capacity will be reduced by 8%, from 52 million tons to 48 million tons. Effectively, in the peak season of the market, the average price of cement in Zhejiang is 20-50 yuan/ton higher than that in Shanghai, Anhui, Jiangsu and other surrounding markets. By the end of 2024, clinker production capacity has decreased by nearly 25 million tons compared with the high level in 2009. The second
reason is to strictly implement the 2024 version of capacity replacement method, implement 2:1 replacement, and put an end to cross-provincial replacement to activate zombie capacity. Zombie production capacity in the cement industry generally refers to those cement or clinker production lines that have been shut down for a long time but have not been completely eliminated. These production lines may be shut down due to backward technology, substandard environmental protection or poor economic benefits. Through capacity replacement, the cement industry has activated some zombie production capacity since 2018. For example, in July 2025, Heilongjiang Province announced a plan to supplement the production capacity of a 5000t/d cement clinker project. The 2000t/d clinker production line used for replacement in the project has been shut down in November 2022, and has been shut down for more than two years by the time the plan was released.
Suggestion 3: Learn from Egypt's experience and reduce the number of production and operation days to 250 days. In October
2024, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the Notice on Further Standardizing the Capacity Management of Cement Industry (hereinafter referred to as the Notice). The Notice requires that the actual daily output of the production line shall not exceed 110% of the daily production capacity of the record, and the actual annual output shall not exceed the annual production capacity of the record (annual production capacity = daily production capacity of the record × production days). The annual production days are calculated as 300 days. By December 31, 2025, a capacity replacement plan will be formulated for excess capacity in accordance with the current policy, which will be valid until 2027. Up to now, there are more than 75 cases of capacity replenishment, with a cumulative capacity reduction of about 17 million tons. However, there are also some areas that are wait-and-see, lack of supervision in implementation, and illegal operations (such as secondary sales of production capacity indicators). In view of the serious overcapacity and the number of working days throughout the year, it is suggested to further reduce the annual production days of the clinker kiln to 250 days. The fourth
suggestion is to establish an orderly power supply mechanism for power cuts and power cuts, so as to give power to the people.
In view of the fact that there is a serious gap in residential electricity consumption during the winter heating season in the north and the summer high temperature season in the south, in line with the principle of giving electricity to the people, the relevant ministries and commissions of the state have introduced an orderly power supply scheme from north to south during the peak period of electricity consumption, and clearly stipulated the duration of annual irregular power outage. According to the requirements of the state and the actual situation, the provinces formulate and implement the annual orderly power supply action plan for cement enterprises. The fifth
suggestion is to improve the off-peak production mechanism, control the storage location according to the market demand, and arrange the production reasonably. Starting
from the total domestic demand for cement, the state has formulated guiding standards for capacity utilization rate (such as no more than 60%), controlled storage locations, and eliminated blind overproduction and waste of resources. According to the requirements of the state and the actual supply and demand in the province, the provincial industry management departments formulate and promote the implementation of the annual peak staggering and production restriction plan and quarterly and monthly actions, and establish a reward and punishment mechanism. The
sixth suggestion is to introduce a tax rebate policy to guide the export of cement and restrict imports.
In the past three years, China's cement products have maintained a sustained growth trend (Figure 1). It is suggested that the national level should introduce more policies to encourage the export of cement and other building materials products, increase support for export to overseas markets, and restrict imports.
Figure 1 China Cement Export Volume Trend
On April 9-10, China Cement Network will hold the " 15th China Cement Industry Summit and TOP100 Award Ceremony " in Hangzhou. At the same time, the " Cement Economy Fifty People Forum (C50) " was held. The Summit will build a platform for the docking of supply and demand and the collision of ideas, explore the path of green transformation and intelligent upgrading from the dimensions of macroeconomic insight, industrial chain synergy and technological innovation breakthroughs, plan a layout for the "15th Five-Year Plan" green development of the industry, and work together to create a new chapter of high-quality development!
浙公网安备33010802003254号