First, the price trend
of silicon materials last week, the average price of N-type polysilicon dense materials was 33100 yuan/ton, down 0.9% annually and 9.81% year-on-year; The average price of N-type granular silicon was 33500 yuan/ton, down 1.47% from the previous month, down 2.9% from the previous year, and the price of mainstream silicon materials continued to decline. During the week, the production capacity of polysilicon increased, the supply pressure increased slightly, the purchasing power of downstream silicon wafer enterprises increased, the supply and demand of polysilicon increased in both directions, the fundamentals did not change significantly, and the price of silicon materials continued to fall.
Figure 1: Price Trend
of N-type Polysilicon Compact Material Source: Digital New Energy DataBM. Com
Figure 2: Price Trend
of N-type Granular Silicon Source: Digital New Energy Dat ABM. Com
2, Demand and Price Outlook
Digital New Energy DataBM. Com data show that the price index of TOPCon double-sided 182 photovoltaic modules was 0.73 yuan/W last week, which was the same as last week. The price index of TOPCon double-sided 210 PV modules was RMB0.74/W, representing a decrease of 1.33% on a month-on-month basis and an increase of 8.82% on a year-on-year basis. The price index of TOPCon double-sided 210R PV modules was RMB0.74/W, representing a decrease of 1.33% on a month-on-month basis and an increase of 10.45% on a year-on-year basis; The price index of HJT double-sided 210 photovoltaic modules was 0.73 yuan/W, down 1.35% from the previous month. After the photovoltaic exhibition, the downstream demand fell short of expectations, coupled with the decline in international silver prices, which led to a decline in costs, strong wait-and-see sentiment among end customers, and a decline in battery and component prices.
Table 1: Last Friday's Photovoltaic Module Price Index (CPMPI)
Data Source: Digital New Energy DataBM. Com
Figure 3: Trend of
Photovoltaic Module Price Index in the Past Month Data Source: Cement Big Data (HTTPS ://data. Ccement. Com/)
Last week, the price of industrial silicon remained stable, and the average price of Si4210 industrial silicon was 9487 yuan/ton, which remained flat on a month-on-month basis. During the week, the number of furnace shutdown in the northwest and the number of furnace start-up in the southwest showed an upward trend, but the number of furnace start-up in the Sichuan-Yunnan region increased significantly, the production capacity continued to release, the downstream maintained the purchase of rigid demand, the enterprise inventory was still high, the futures price was disturbed by the policy and showed an oscillating trend, while the spot price remained stable. In terms of
polysilicon, from the supply side, with the arrival of the wet season, the cost of electricity has dropped significantly, and the enterprises in Sichuan and Yunnan have a strong willingness to resume production, so it is expected that the pressure on the supply side will increase. From the demand side, the downstream signing situation after the photovoltaic exhibition is not as good as expected, although the enterprise inventory has been slightly degraded, but the absolute level is still high. In addition, the market expects the new energy consumption standard of polysilicon to land recently, which drives the backward production capacity of polysilicon to be cleared, the bullish sentiment is high, and the polysilicon futures have risen sharply. In the medium term, the policy landing is still uncertain, even if the policy is implemented beyond expectations, 30% of the production capacity is reduced, but the supply is still excessive. In the short term, the resumption of production of leading enterprises is more certain, the rise in futures prices attracts production enterprises to participate in hedging, lock in profits ahead of time, and intensify the bearish sentiment in the spot market. It is expected that the price of polysilicon will continue to fluctuate weakly next week (6.15-6.18).
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