sulfuric acid soared from 1000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to about 2000 yuan/ton in August, doubling the increase; the project of phosphogypsum acid co-production cement also began to be launched intensively this year, and some design institutes said frankly that "customers require to be quick, seize the time to put into production as soon as possible". 2 million tons of phosphogypsum/year large-scale production line, with a total investment of about 1.6 billion yuan, even if the price of sulfuric acid falls to a low level of 500 yuan/ton, it can still make a profit of about 1. However, settling the economic account does not mean understanding the industry account.
According to the annual average price data of China Sulfuric Acid Industry Association, the historical normal level of sulfuric acid price is between 200 and 400 yuan/ton, and 500 yuan/ton is already relatively high. If the project income is calculated at a low price of 500 yuan/ton, there is obviously a lack of rational support. At present, the project of phosphogypsum acid co-production cement is facing triple advantages of policy support, cost advantage and sulfuric acid price increase, and the investment enthusiasm of the industry continues to heat up, but it is more necessary to keep calm thinking under the upsurge. Question
1: Why is the joint production of acid and cement from phosphogypsum "menacing"? The economic logic of this process is indeed tenable: phosphogypsum calcium slag directly replaces more than 70% of natural limestone, while limestone accounts for 80% ~ 85% of the raw material cost in traditional cement, which is almost zero; the third generation technology reduces the coal consumption per ton of acid to 250 kg, and the coal cost is shared by the acid line and the cement line; The disposal cost of phosphogypsum for self-use is about 80 yuan per ton, and the total annual production line is 160 million yuan; The sales revenue of sulfuric acid covers most of the fixed costs, and the annual depreciation plus interest is about 1. Tons of cement ( policy side has given full confidence. In March 2024, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other seven departments jointly issued the Action Plan for Comprehensive Utilization of Phosphogypsum (Ministry of Industry and Information Technology Joint Section [2024] 58), which clearly stated that the comprehensive utilization rate of phosphogypsum would reach 65% by 2026, and encouraged "supporting the decomposition of phosphogypsum to produce sulfuric acid and lime and cement". Sulfuric acid production from phosphogypsum is listed as an encouraged project in the Guidance Catalogue for Industrial Structure Adjustment (2024 edition). Announcement No.90 of the Ministry of Finance and the General Administration of Taxation in 2019 stipulates that the proportion of phosphogypsum in the production of sulfuric acid products from phosphogypsum is not less than 40%, and the value-added tax is 70%. Hubei and other places have also introduced local supporting policies such as rewards and subsidies for ladder consumption and subsidies for technological transformation. The policy is reasonable, the environmental protection is well-founded, and the industry is in need-the right time, the right place and the right people seem to be in the right place for enterprises to launch projects. It is undeniable that the comprehensive utilization of phosphogypsum is indeed a strategic just need at the national level. The historical stockpile of phosphogypsum in China has exceeded 800 million tons, and the comprehensive utilization rate is only about 50%. The Yangtze River Economic Belt bears 82% of the soluble phosphorus, fluorine and heavy metals contained in phosphogypsum in the whole country, which is easy to cause environmental risks such as groundwater pollution. From the hard constraint of "fixing production by slag" to the realistic dilemma of "nowhere to pile up", phosphorus chemical enterprises can not even keep the production capacity of phosphoric acid without launching comprehensive utilization projects. Acid production and co-production of cement have opened up the three links of waste elimination, acid production and cement production at one stroke, killing three birds with one stone, which is indeed one of the best ways to dispose of phosphogypsum at present. But the question is: Will the key variables in the economic accounts stand the test of time? Ccement. Com/news/2608/richtext/IMG/ee6mpkr66r81787036631043. The annual average price data of China Sulfuric Acid Industry Association show that the price of sulfuric acid fluctuates between 190 and 410 yuan/ton in 2012-2019. In 2020, the trough was only 150 yuan/ton, in 2021-2022, it reached 550 yuan/ton, and in 2023, it fell back to 190 yuan/ton. The long-term center is 200 ~ 400 yuan/ton, and more than 500 yuan/ton is high. At present, 2000 yuan/ton is 5-7 times of the historical norm. This round of sulfuric acid surge is the superposition of three forces: the "hard break" of sulfur import-the Middle East shipping is blocked, the Russian export ban, and the port inventory is reduced from 2 million tons to 900,000 tons; the contraction of the supply side-the cost of sulfuric acid is inverted and the production is stopped, and the centralized maintenance of smelting acid is carried out; the resonance of the demand side-the supply of phosphate fertilizer is guaranteed and the operation of lithium iron phosphate is started at a high level. But these drivers are unsustainable: geopolitical conflict is a short-term event, cost inversion and production cuts are reversible, and maintenance is seasonal. More importantly, the phosphogypsum acid co-production cement project itself is expanding the supply of sulfuric acid. Betting on high prices and building production capacity, the supply increment will eventually swallow the price bubble. There must be a sharp fall after a sharp rise, which is the iron law that strong cycle chemicals can not escape. When sulfuric acid returns to the normal state of 200 ~ 400 yuan/ton, where will the project go? Once it returns to the historical center of 300 yuan/ton, the income of sulfuric acid end will shrink dramatically, and the project will turn from profit to break-even or even loss; if it further falls back to 200 yuan/ton, it will be a deep loss. Project developers bet on a high window period, but the payback period is 7 to 10 years, locking in long-term earnings with quarterly highs-until the price returns to normal, the production line has been completed, sulfuric acid can not be sold, clinker is boycotted, in a dilemma. Question 3: Can cement industry withstand the influx of by-product clinker into the market? The original intention of phosphogypsum acid co-production cement project is not to seize the cement market-phosphogypsum elimination and sulfuric acid production are the main industries, and clinker is only a by-product "incidentally". But the market does not see what your "intention" is, only how many goods you pour into the market. Based on the benchmark production line of 2 million tons of phosphogypsum per year, the annual output of clinker in a single line is about 1 million tons. At present, public information shows that Xiangyun Stock, Yidu Xingfa, Guiyang Kailin, Xingfa Group and other million-ton projects are being promoted or planned. If these projects are put into operation one after another, millions or even tens of millions of tons of clinker will be released to the market every year. What is the current situation of the cement industry? Many cement enterprises have made it clear that the core work of the cement industry at this stage is reduction rather than increment. Capacity removal is regarded by the industry as the top priority for the survival of the industry. At this juncture, the phosphogypsum co-production project pours low-cost clinker into the market as a "by-product", and the marginal cost per ton of clinker is only 80-150 yuan, which is 30% -50% lower than traditional process. How do traditional cement enterprises compete? What is this if not a "dimensionality reduction strike"? Phosphorus chemical enterprises calculate their own economic accounts, but for the whole cement industry, the externalities of this account are borne by others. 
Secondly, the high price of sulfuric acid should not be a long-term assumption for project decision-making. The industry's reminder is not unreasonable- "to rationally and objectively look at the current rise in sulfuric acid prices, crazy projects are not necessarily a good thing.". The payback period of project investment is often 7 to 10 years, and using the current high price to lock in decision-making is to use short-term price signals to guide long-term capital investment, which is logically untenable. It is suggested that the project party adopt the long-term average value or pessimistic scenario of sulfuric acid price for stress test in the feasibility study, instead of taking the current 2000 yuan/ton as the benchmark.
Thirdly, the market consumption of by-product clinker must be systematically arranged. Phosphorus chemical enterprises can not make money by themselves and dump clinker into the market. When examining and approving projects, local governments are determined not to go up within the planning layout and beyond the planning quantity. Planning should be authoritative. In the process of planning, cement associations should be involved and the opinions of cement enterprises should be widely listened to. In order to ensure the orderly construction of new production lines for disposal of phosphorus (titanium, fluorine) gypsum cement kilns, and truly achieve scientific and reasonable, the approval of projects that do not participate in capacity replacement and pure increment should be more prudent. The co-production of acid and cement
from phosphogypsum has the right direction, feasible technology and policy support, but "fast" is not equal to "right". The east wind of policy can be borrowed, but it can not become a tornado. The window of sulfuric acid price increase can be snatched, but it can not be snatched into beating drums and passing flowers. The market of clinker by-products can be entered, but it can not become a "dimension reduction blow" to the traditional cement industry. What the industry needs is rational industrial synergy, not a carnival of "expanding production" in the name of "environmental protection".
After all, phosphogypsum needs to be absorbed, and the cement industry also needs to live. These two things should not be a zero-sum game.
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