Recently, the People's Bank of China and the National Bureau of Statistics successively released the financial data and economic data for September 2025. The observation and analysis of the Cement Big Data Research Institute are as follows:
(1) The scale of social financing: In August 2025, the scale of social financing increased by 3.53 trillion yuan. The stock of social finance increased by 8.7% year-on-year, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous value. Government bond financing increased by 1.19 trillion yuan in August, an increase of 346.4 billion yuan less than same period last year. During the month, the scale of government bond issuance fell annually, and the gap with the same period last year was further widened, which became an important reason for the year-on-year decrease in social finance. At the same time, RMB loans increased by 1.61 trillion yuan, an increase of 366.1 billion yuan less than same period last year. From the perspective of credit, loans to residents increased by 389 billion yuan, 111 billion yuan less than same period last year; loans to enterprises and institutions increased by 1.22 trillion yuan, 270 billion yuan less than same period last year. In September, government bond financing continued to be dragged down by the high base, the mentality of residents and enterprises remained cautious, and the growth rate of social finance continued to slow down.
(2) Cement output: The cement output from January to September 2025 was 1,259.36 million tons, representing a year-on-year decrease of 5.2% and an increase of 0.4 percentage point as compared with the previous value. According to the full-caliber calculation, the output of cement from January to September decreased by about 5.1% compared with the same period last year. In September, the downstream construction activity increased slightly, but the terminal demand was still significantly weaker than same period in previous years, and the decline in cement production was further expanded.
(3) Market outlook: In October, the number of new projects commenced continued to hover at a low level, and the direct demand for cement was limited. On the supply side, peak staggering production continues, but regional differences aggravate the imbalance of regional supply. Generally speaking, the cement price in the traditional construction peak season is expected to continue to rise, and the national average price may rise, but the regional differentiation is obvious, the southern market is active, the north is waiting for rush work, and the recovery of real estate is still the core factor restricting the height and sustainability of price rise.
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