First, the price trend
of silicon materials last week, the average price of N-type polysilicon re-feeding was 33000 yuan/ton, up 3.13% annually and down 30.08% year-on-year; The average price of N-type granular silicon was yuan/ton 31000, which was flat, down 29.86% year-on-year, and the price of mainstream silicon materials rebounded. Fundamentally, the weekly supply still maintained growth, silicon wafer manufacturers maintained rigid demand, downstream demand was flat, but under the catalysis of policy and industry self-discipline events, the willingness of enterprises to close the market increased, and polysilicon prices rebounded.
Figure 1: N-type Polysilicon Re-feeding Price Trend
Data Source: Digital New Energy DataBM. Com
Figure 2: N-type Granular Silicon Price Trend
Data Source: Digital New Energy Dat According to the data of aBM. Com
II, Demand and Price Outlook
Digital New Energy DataBM. Com, the price index of TOPCon double-sided 182 photovoltaic modules was 0.69 yuan/W last week, which was flat. The price index of TOPCon double-sided 210 PV modules was 0.69 yuan/W, flat on a month-on-month basis, up 1.47% on a year-on-year basis; the price index of TOPCon double-sided 210R PV modules was 0.71 yuan/W, flat on a month-on-month basis, up 4.41% on a year-on-year basis; The price index of HJT double-sided 210 photovoltaic modules was 0.7 yuan/W, down 4.11% from the previous month. Domestic terminal installation is expected to be weak, overseas order increment is insufficient, upstream price increase transmission is not smooth, terminal procurement is general, active stock action is less, component price is stable and weak.
Table 1: Last Friday's Photovoltaic Module Price Index (CPMPI)
Data Source: Digital New Energy DataBM. Com
Figure 3: Trend of
Photovoltaic Module Price Index in the Past Month Data Source: Cement Big Data (HTTPS ://data. Ccement. Com/)
Last week, the price of industrial silicon was temporarily stable. The average price of Si4210 industrial silicon was 9257 yuan/ton, which was flat on a month-on-month basis, and the year-on-year decline narrowed to 4.98%. This week, some manufacturers have stopped production, and the supply has decreased; the three major downstream demands are flat, the increment is insufficient, and the spot price of industrial silicon is temporarily stable. In terms of
polysilicon, the market showed a trend of "continuous fermentation of policy, steady rebound of spot and higher volatility of futures". Last Thursday, eight polysilicon leading enterprises jointly signed the "Anti-Involution Initiative" in Shanghai, and the co-signing enterprises jointly pledged to: resolutely implement the full cost price sales compliance requirements, comprehensively carry out price self-examination and self-correction; strictly implement energy consumption standards, and actively promote energy conservation and carbon reduction and capacity clearance. Influenced by the continuous fermentation of policies and the strengthening of industry self-discipline, futures prices rose sharply, closing prices rose 12.1% from last week, spot prices rebounded, but the basis continued to widen, reflecting that the current fundamentals are still weak. Due to the increasing hedging pressure after the rise of futures prices, if the follow-up "anti-involution" policy falls to the ground and the effect of industry self-discipline is not as good as expected, the market may still return to reality, while the spot may return to the downward channel. In the
short term, the market has entered the game of favorable policies and weak reality. It is expected that the polysilicon futures and spot prices will show a volatile trend next week (8.10-8.14). We need to focus on the follow-up policy implementation and industry self-discipline, as well as the repair of the real fundamentals.
浙公网安备33010802003254号