Recently, the People's Bank of China and the National Bureau of Statistics successively released the financial data and economic data for September 2026. The observation and analysis of the Cement Big Data Research Institute are as follows:
(1) The scale of social financing: In September, the scale of social financing increased by 3.55 trillion yuan, an increase of 17.7 billion yuan over the same period last year. The stock of social finance grew by 7.1% year-on-year, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous value. Government bond financing increased by 1.54 trillion yuan in September, an increase of 346.9 billion yuan over the same period last year. At the same time, RMB loans increased by 1.27 trillion yuan, an increase of 334.7 billion yuan less than same period last year. From the perspective of credit, the growth of resident loans was zero, with a year-on-year decrease of 389 billion yuan; the loans of enterprises and institutions increased by 1.29 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 70 billion yuan. In September, government bond issuance accelerated to support social finance, and bill financing increased year-on-year to support it, but private sector financing demand still needs to be improved.
(2) Cement output: According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the cement output from January to September 2026 was 1,131.19 million tons, representing a year-on-year decrease of 8.6% and a decrease of 0.4 percentage point as compared with the previous value. In September, the national cement market relied on the golden nine peak season, rising costs and peak staggering and production restriction, showing a general upward trend, regional differentiation, uneven landing pattern, marginal improvement in demand side, and a significant rebound in prices.
(3) Market outlook: In October, entering the "Silver Ten" traditional construction window period, the national cement market is expected to show a pattern of "rush to support the bottom, North-South differentiation, price increase and landing obstacles". In October, many places continued to stagger peak and limit production, the supply side continued to shrink, the cost of superimposed coal remained high, and the willingness of enterprises to repair profits remained strong. The temperature in the north turns cold, and the construction is gradually coming to an end; there is still room for rush work in the south, but the problem of capital shortage in the downstream is still more prominent. Although the price is supported by the cost, the upward elasticity is limited, and the overall situation of "good expectations, weak reality" may continue.
浙公网安备33010802003254号